White Sox vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - April 19, 2025

2.02% ev

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I have this closer to -130. Smith’s posted just a 17.6% K rate through 3 starts, but my expected K model puts him closer to 23%. He’s been capped at around 80-85 pitches so far, so if they give him a bit more leash today, it’s a great buy-low spot. He faced this same Red Sox team last time out and only struck out 3 — but they chased just 14% of his pitches, which I expect to rise here. Boston’s 4-8 hitters are his best shot to rack up Ks, and their aggressive approach (highest 1st pitch swing rate in MLB) means quick counts, early contact, and potentially a third trip through that key part of the order. Solid value at plus money.

Day 2

Autoplaying CSW totals 8.5+

White Sox bullpen melting — 5.17 ERA last 3, 1.21 WHIP. Boston’s pen not much better — 4.45 ERA last 3. Chicago starters: 4.29 ERA last 10. Red Sox starters: 3.74 but dipping. Both staffs shaky — game script leans late runs. Boston rakes righties — .246 AVG, .313 OBP, 4.39 R/9. Crochet (1.38 ERA) & Smith (2.04 ERA) both due for bumps — neither gets deep, bullpen action likely. Last 5 meetings: 4 went Over. Boston scoring 4.28/game. CWS averaging 3.07 — enough to push pace. Fenway weather neutral, Sox strong at home (4-3), CWS winless on road (0-6). One crooked inning flips this number.

1.77% ev

Bet to +100. Project value on Over 9 to -110 but preferred this

3.82% ev