Heat vs. Celtics Odds & Betting Predictions - October 27, 2023

Heat at Celtics

11:30 pm • ESPN

Miami Heat

0-4

111

111 - 119

Boston Celtics

6-5

119

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Heat 0-4	+8	+8.5-110	o217.5-110	+282
Celtics 6-5	-8.5-110	u217.5-110	-355

Friday 11:30 p.m.

October 27, 2023

TD GardenBoston

D.White o17.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-105

0.95u

J.Tatum o2.5 3pt M-120

0.83u

BOS -8.5-110

1.1u

BOS -8-110

1.1u

BOS -7.5-125

$100.00

J.Brown o19.5 Pts-110

0.36u

Was coming to this prop thinking I’d be on the under but holy crap the books overreacted. Especially after all the chatter last game, Brown is gonna get more looks tonight

J.Brown o19.5 Pts-125

0.96u

Over 217.5-110

1.82u

L4 games of the playoffs went under

Under 217.5-110

J.Holiday u20.5 Pts+Ast-115

1.15u

After accruing a 17% usage rate in the preseason, he was down to 16% in the first game vs NYK (11 PA). Even if the Celtics look to get him going tonight, they have five guys in their starting lineup capable of putting up numbers, and this is a tough opponent (also keep in mind, Jaylen Brown had a muted performance vs NYK - more realistically that he’s featured more tonight). MIA profiles similarly defensively as NYK - I just don’t see the upside quite yet, especially in this matchup.

J.Tatum o26.5 Pts-113

B.Adebayo o17.5 Pts-113

0.88u

T.Herro o27.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.61u

Under 217.5-110

0.55u

Featured Insight
The Boston Celtics averaged 12.7 second chance points per game (1,039 points/82 games) last season -- ninth-lowest among NBA teams. The Miami Heat allowed 12.0 second chance points per game last season -- third-best among NBA defenses.

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Featured Insight
The Boston Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season -- tied for second-best among NBA teams. The Miami Heat averaged 15.1 offensive rebounds per game (1,242 rebounds/82 games) last season -- tied for ninth-worst among NBA teams.

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NBA Public Betting

Celtics are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Celtics are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Celtics are 20-18 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Celtics' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 21 of Celtics' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Celtics	38-41-3	18-23	20-18-3	37-39-3	1-2
Heat	39-42-1	22-19	17-23-1	21-24	18-18-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Celtics	37-45	21-20	16-25	37-42	0-3
Heat	44-38	25-16	19-22	26-19	18-19

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Celtics	61-21	N/A	N/A	60-19	1-2
Heat	37-45	N/A	N/A	26-19	11-26

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 25th	@NYK	W 108-104	-4 L	U 223	BOS -175
Oct 19th	@CHA	W 127-99	-7 W	U 229	BOS -265
Oct 17th	NYK	W 123-110	-10 W	O 219	BOS -375
Oct 11th	@PHI	W 112-101	-2.5 W	U 218.5	BOS -143
Oct 9th	@NYK	L 107-114	+8.5 W	O 219	NYK +275