Spurs vs. Hornets Odds & Betting Predictions - January 20, 2024

Who’s taking the over in this AAU scrimmage

No Victor Wembanyama tonight in game with the Hornets (pace won’t be an issue). Over his last four games without Wemby, Johnson has scored 28/16/29/26 pts.

LaMelo Ball is back from injury and his minutes have continued to ramp up each game. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Spurs who will be without Victor Wembanyama. LaMelo has played 3 games since his return and is averaging 26 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in 29.3 minutes per game. However, he has seen an uptick in his minutes in each game. The three games he has played were against the Spurs, the Heat, and the Pelicans. He scored 28 against the Spurs in just 26.7 minutes, 21 against Miami, and 29 against the Pelicans. Here, the Spurs play at one of the fastest Paces in the league (3rd) compared to New Orleans (15th), and Miami (29th), so this is again a clear Pace Up opportunity for LaMelo. On the season, LaMelo has exceeded this line in 54% of games but when LaMelo has played at least 30 minutes, this jumps to 60% and he averaged 27 points per game in those contests. I like LaMelo to exceed 25.5 points in a Pace Up spot against this porous Spurs’ Defense.

The Spurs will be without Victor Wembanyama today and one player that I expect to be negatively impacted is Tre Jones. On the season as a whole, Tre Jones is averaging 5.4 assists per game and 1.1 per game are to Wemby. Since Tre joined the starting lineup this has skyrocketed. In the last 7 games he is averaging 7.0 assists per game with 2.3 going to Wemby, per NBA Advanced Stats. Jones has excellent rapport with Wembanyama and he has been shooting 51.4% on field goal attempts off of Tre Jones Passes. Without Wemby, some of these easier assists simply may not exist. Here, this is a soft matchup against the Charlotte Hornets but the Hornets have actually played at a slow Pace this season, just 20th in the league. Even though the Hornets’ defense has struggled, it would be a relative Pace Down spot for the Hornets. Over these last 7 games as a starter, Jones is averaging 7 assists on 13.3 potentials. However, on the season without Wembanyama he is averaging just 4.2 assists in 24.8 minutes per game. In the one game he started without Wembanyama he played 32.4 minutes against the Bulls with only 4 assists on 12 potentials. He should see a bit more success here given the matchup; however, this line is a touch inflated due to his back-to-back double digit assist performances against the Atlanta Hawks and the Boston Celtics. I like Tre Jones to go under 7.5 Assists.