George Mason vs. G Washington Odds & Betting Predictions - February 14, 2026

#RLM

I’m starting to think this George Mason team isn’t all that good. They’re coming off a bad blowout loss to Richmond and have had far too many close contests for an elite team. Their regression doesn’t really shock me as George Mason was projected to be a middling team in the Atlantic 10. Despite being 21-4, they aren’t loved by the advanced metrics. I have them ranked as the 96th best in the country, 24 spots lower than this 14-11 George Washington team. Bart Torvik has a similar view, ranking George Mason 119th compared to George Washington at 81st. Shot Quality also agrees this team isn’t as good as its record indicates, projecting the Patriots closer to 15-10 than 21-4. George Mason also wasn’t tested in non-conference play, which really helped boost that record. They played the 338th toughest non-conference schedule and caught some favorable spots early in A-10 play. However, as we’ve gotten deeper into conference action, we’ve seen them start to stumble. After opening the season 18-1, they’re just 3-3 over their last six games. These teams met earlier this season, with George Mason barely winning on its home floor. However, Shot Quality graded that game as a 69-67 George Washington win. Since that first meeting, the regression has really started to hit for the Patriots offense. George Mason has failed to reach 1.0 points per possession in three straight games, and their best shooter has gone ice cold since suffering a hand injury. As a team they’re shooting just 30.5% from three in conference play, which ranks 11th in the league. George Washington should be focused on protecting the rim tonight and will be perfectly fine letting the Patriots fire away from deep. To beat this GW defense, you need spacing and shooting, two things George Mason is seriously lacking right now. They also rank 10th in our college basketball luck rankings, which suggests even more regression could be coming. Now let’s talk about George Washington. First of all, they rank dead last in our luck rankings. They’ve been dealt a brutal hand, especially after Rafael Castro got hurt. However, this roster is still loaded with talent and the advanced metrics love them. There’s a reason they were projected to finish second in the A-10. George Washington is much better than its record suggests, with Shot Quality projecting them closer to 16-9. I do wish Castro was playing in this spot, but the Revs have had enough time to adjust to life without him. This is one of the most veteran and deepest teams in the country, and I think they get the job done at home with or without Castro. Our model has George Washington winning 72.94–69.58, which implies a fair spread of 3.36. I think we’re getting a discount after the first meeting, give me the Revs at home.