Thursday was a pretty awesome day of March Madness basketball, but Friday? Not so much.
But you know what? That often means the inverse for the weekend. Thursday’s upsets set up some big spreads for Saturday, while all the favorites winning Friday should mean plenty of great Sunday matchups.
The underdog slate on Friday didn't turn out as well as our Thursday 'dogs, so let's look at a trio of favorites for Saturday, plus one early long shot.
Saint Louis vs. Michigan
This one shouldn’t be particularly surprising if you followed in the Action app on Thursday, since I already backed the Billikens to make the Sweet 16 in anticipation of this matchup. I’m not necessarily doubling down, but I still like the value here if you didn’t already grab a Sweet 16 ticket at +1700.
We saw St. Louis absolutely run Georgia out of the gym on Thursday. While that was one particular matchup, it showed this team’s true power at its best, and may have also showed that the fears of how the Billikens had fallen off late in the season were far overstated.
When Robbie Avila — aka Cream Abdul-Jabbar aka Steph Blurry aka SLU Alcindor — is stretching the defense and opening things up, this offense can score with the best of them.
The defense is also better than you think, with an elite effective field goal profile and a strength on the glass. Those are specifically very important areas against a Michigan team that I think is the best in the entire field.
The Billikens also have a specific weakness when it comes to turning the ball over, but that just happens to be Michigan’s weakest spot, too. Add in some Wolverines injuries, and there’s a formula for this to stay close all the way through — or even turn into a shocker.
This is just a nibble on a long shot that’s more realistic than +720 would imply.
Pick: Saint Louis ML +720
TCU vs. Duke
Duke dodged not one but two bullets on Thursday. The Blue Devils played poorly and escaped with an ugly win over 16-seed Siena that should serve as something of a wake-up call. They also lucked into a much lighter opponent when Ohio State’s comeback fell short against TCU.
The Buckeyes would’ve been a legitimately dangerous opponent for Duke, especially with Caleb Foster and potentially Patrick Ngongba II out.
On the flip side, TCU isn't as dangerous. The Horned Frogs are really weak offensively and won’t score enough to keep up with Duke, even with a compromised Ngongba-less defense.
The offense relies mostly on easy buckets off turnovers and offensive rebounds, and Duke should limit both opportunities and have a pretty easy time with this matchup.
Jamie Dixon has coached his team to near upsets in a couple of big second-round spots, but he’s ultimately 2-8 ATS in the NCAA Tournament with only one day to prep.
This is a home game in Greenville, South Carolina, especially now that Duke fans scooped all those extra leftover UNC tickets. Thus, I expect Duke to pull away with ease.
Pick: Duke -11.5
Texas A&M vs. Houston
The Aggies made Saint Mary’s look like it didn’t belong in the tournament, but that was a specific matchup issue for a team that just couldn’t handle the step up in athleticism.
Bucky Ball works against inferior opponents that can’t keep up and handle the pressure, and Saint Mary’s proved to be that. However, Houston won’t.
A&M rotates guys in like hockey shifts, relying on fresh legs to wear down the opponent. But one thing you’re not going to do to Houston is outwork it.
The Aggies’ play style is about ramping up defensive pressure to force turnovers and find easy offense with an aggressive, foul-heavy attack. If that sounds familiar, it’s because Houston is basically the masters of doing just that.
The Cougars won’t be daunted by the pressure or energy. They turn the ball over at one of the lowest rate in the country, with potential top-five pick Kingston Flemings taking care of things.
I’m not a big believer in Houston’s offense, but it should get a boost of free throws with A&M’s tendencies, and it should also dominate the offensive glass for extra possessions.
I won’t be surprised if A&M looks just as bad against Houston as it looked great against Saint Mary’s. I would’ve been intrigued by the Gaels here, but Houston is mostly just a much better, more talented version of Texas A&M.
Pick: Houston -9.5
High Point vs. Arkansas
High Point is the story of the tournament so far, thanks to the biggest upset win. But don’t forget that the Panthers were trailing big late before a flurry of 3s and a miracle finish against a Wisconsin team known to run hot and cold.
High Point showed its the real deal, but I don’t like the matchup here. The Panthers force the most turnovers of any team in the nation, but guess which squad turns it over the least? That would be Arkansas, led by stud freshman point guard Darius Acuff Jr.
If High Point can’t get the turnovers, it’s hard to see this defense slowing a Razorbacks offense that’s been incredible lately.
This is a high line for a four-seed in the second round, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see High Point score early and hang around. However, this game should be on the faster, higher-scoring side, and that makes the spread less daunting.
At the end of the day, the Big South is still 2-30 all-time in the NCAA Tournament and had lost its previous 10 non-play-in games by double digits. The conference is 2-8 ATS as an underdog over the last decade.
Remember, John Calipari teams effectively act as a two-seed once they get to March, regardless of their actual seed number. He’s a robust 37-25-3 ATS over the past couple of decades in the tournament (a 60% hit rate), and the Razorbacks should take care of business, setting up a showdown with Arizona.
Pick: Arkansas -11.5
