The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Nashville, Tennessee. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Virginia is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 147 points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Ohio State prediction and college basketball picks for the Nashville Hoops Showdown on February 14, 2026.
Virginia Cavaliers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Virginia -4.5 (Play to -6)
My Virginia vs Ohio State best bet is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Virginia vs Ohio State Odds, Betting Line, Point Spread
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-4.5 -110 | 146.5 -115o / -105u | -192 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+4.5 -110 | 146.5 -115o / -105u | +160 |
- Virginia vs Ohio State Point Spread: Virginia -4.5, Ohio State +4.5
- Virginia vs Ohio State Total: 146.5 Total Points
- Virginia vs Ohio State ML: Virginia -192, Ohio State +160
Virginia vs Ohio State Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is about as streaky as it gets. It alternates wins and losses in league play like no other. Over the past 12 games, the Buckeyes are 7-5 and have a hefty task against Virginia.
I find myself in this conundrum every year when evaluating Ohio State. You think it has top-25 upside, but then it falls flat and covers the spread just 39% of the time.
So, what's wrong with Ohio State? Defense is the real issue here, ranking 80th in KenPom's defensive efficiency.
The Buckeyes allow opponents to shoot 51.7% from 2-point range (177th). Christoph Tilly isn't physical enough to hang with the physical bigs in the Big Ten, and he's dealt with injuries.
Rebounding is another concern, as the Buckeyes give up offensive boards at a 31.2% clip (196th). On the bright side, opponents shoot just 30% from deep against Ohio State. However, in such a variance-based stat, that could begin to go against the Buckeyes, too.
The offense centers around a pair of highly gifted guards, point guard Bruce Thornton and sharpshooter John Mobley Jr.. Thornton is a score-first lead guard, averaging 20 points per game on 55% shooting and 40% from deep.
At times, I wonder if Thornton's iso-style can be a hindrance to winning. Mobley is shooting 40% from deep and requires a body on him at all times.
Ohio State's main scoring comes inside the arc, shooting 58% on 2s (17th). The duo of Devin Royal and Amare Bynum plays a key role in keeping that number at an elite level.
Outside of Thornton and Mobley, the Buckeyes are pretty lean in terms of shooting. Without a true wing to catch and shoot, teams can pack the paint a bit. Teams aren't scared of Royal, Tilly or Bynum shooting.
Play the numbers and let them shoot.
Virginia Cavaliers
How cool is it to see a Virginia team that actually embraces modern basketball? That's what Ryan Odom brought to Charlottesville. Odom has the Cavaliers sitting at 21-3 overall and 10-2 in ACC play in his inaugural season.
Don't get it twisted: Virginia is elite on the defensive end, too. That hasn't fallen by the wayside in life without Tony Bennett. Virginia holds opponents to 45% shooting on 2s (11th) and 29% from deep (13th). Plus, driving on Virginia will lead to blocked shots, as it ranks sixth with 15.8% block rate.
Backup big man Ugonna Onyenso leads the sport with 15.9% block percentage. Starting center Johann Grunloh is 14th in that same category.
That interior dominance also factors in on the glass, as Virginia grabs offensive boards at a 39.8% clip — behind just Tennessee and Florida.
Plus, the Cavaliers' leading scorer is another big man — Belgium-born freshman Thijs De Ridder, who posts 16.1 points per game.
Over Virginia's last three games, De Ridder scored 10, nine and nine points. He has to get rolling for this Virginia offense to score 75+ points again, which it hasn't done in its last four games.
Shooting is a huge part of Virginia's offense, as it attempts 3s on 46% of field goal attempts. Jacari White and Sam Lewis have fit like a glove in Odom's system as sharpshooting wings. The ball-handling guards have struggled from the 3-point line, though.
Malik Thomas, Chance Mallory and Dallin Hall are each in the low 30s. Thomas can get going in a hurry, but the other two do most of the ball-handling and need to be reliable shooters.
However, Mallory and Hall are both great at touching the paint and dishing to shooters, which is a key part of Virginia's offense.
Virginia vs Ohio State College Basketball Pick
On a neutral site, this line feels light.
I project Virginia as about a six-point favorite, so I see real value in 4.5.
All the things Virginia is good at, Ohio State isn't good at. The Cavaliers have the paint dominance, which is the perfect ingredient to crush the Buckeyes.
I expect a more convincing win than the numbers say.
My Pick: Virginia -4.5 (Play to -6)
