49ers vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2025

There may be some value on the receptions prop for Jake Tonges. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 2.44 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 1.75. The model believes there is a 44% chance he records at least 2.5 receptions, so there is value on the over at +240. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq

You know what it is

The swiss-army knife. With George Kittle sidelined, Kyle Juszczyk’s role in the 49ers offense becomes more intriguing than usual. In Week 1, he played 37 snaps but lined up in the backfield on only 12 of them, spending 15 as an in-line tight end, 5 out wide, and 3 in the slot, usage that signals more route involvement than gadget work. Shanahan has already schemed him into 2 catches for 32 yards, and his comments about “blurring” the FB/TE responsibilities make it clear Juice will continue to see creative deployment. With Mac Jones more likely to lean on short throws and safety valves, Juszczyk needs just a single leak play or checkdown to clear the low line dispute the inherent volatility in his target volume. #PlayerProps

Stop me if you've heard this before: the 49ers' injury list is long and troubling. Brock Purdy is officially out for 2-to-5 weeks with a mutant turf toe, whatever that means. George Kittle is out along with Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings is questionable. Trent Williams is listed as questionable too and had a rough Week 1, while Christian McCaffrey was questionable a week ago before playing somewhat ineffectively with a huge workload. That's pretty much the entire San Francisco offense, and you're right to be concerned about San Francisco futures and long term — but not against the Saints. Downgrading the 49ers for all those injuries is significant. It pushes the 49ers now outside my top 10 offense and defenses and drops them from the top echelon of Super Bowl contenders to 10th overall. But the Saints are 32nd. New Orleans has its own injuries. S Julian Blackmon is out, and top pass rusher Chase Young is questionable along with a pair of first-round offensive linemen from an already shaky unit. And the Saints just weren't that good to start with, at anything really. Purdy is the big loss here, obviously. This is no longer Mr. Irrelevant. Purdy played like a fringe top-10 QB last season and looked the part leading the 49ers to a comeback win in Week 1. He's a real loss. Kyle Shanahan's numbers without Purdy or Jimmy Garoppolo are ghastly as a head coach. He's an awful 9-32 SU without either guy starting at quarterback, including 3-17 on the road and 3-9 as a favorite. If that alone scares you away, I get it. But you should know that a majority of those losses came with barely even competent career backups Brian Hoyer (0-6), Nick Mullens (5-11), and C.J. Beathard (2-10). Trey Lance was a perfectly fine 2-2. Mac Jones is not C.J. Beathard. Jones is a guy Kyle Shanahan always had his eye on, the perfect point-and-click point guard QB for a Shanahan system. He can be successful running this offense. I make him around a 2-to-2.5-point downgrade from Purdy in Shanahan's offense, a bit short of an industry-consensus four-point drop. But even with Jones and the other injuries, I still have the 49ers favored by almost 10 points here, because the Saints are that bad. Drop further for Jones or the loss of Trent Williams and we're still north of 49ers -7, still getting multiple key numbers and sitting at -3 (+100) that could even drop below the bottom key number by kickoff. You're right to be concerned about the 49ers — against the rest of the league. This is still very clearly the better team on both sides of the ball. If we lose to the Saints, so be it. this is an alternate line at FanDuel, worth a tiny bit of juice to get under the key number

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Obvious under of the week

Projection: 0.84 TDs, -252.3. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.