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Commanders vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - November 5, 2023

Commanders at Patriots

6:00 pm • FOX

Washington Commanders

0-1
20
20 - 17

New England Patriots

1-0
17

Commanders at Patriots Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Commanders
0-1
+2.5
+3-112
o40.5-112
+130
Patriots
1-0
u40.5
-3-107
u40.5-107
-154
location pinSunday 6:00 p.m.
November 05, 2023
Gillette StadiumFoxborough
Commanders vs. Patriots Expert Picks
Greg Matherne
Greg Matherne
Last 30d: 8-19-0 (+2.6u)
WAS +3-115
1u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 127-135-9 (-17.8u)
WAS +3-120
1.04u
WAS +130
1.63u
The Touchdown Show
The Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
J.Dotson Anytime TD Scorer+300
3u
@GDAWG5000
Simon Hunter
Simon Hunter
Last 30d: 1-0-0 (+1.0u)
NE -3-109
1u
Mjaybrod
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 1-1-0 (-0.0u)
WAS +3-120
0.83u
This line is about to move to 2.5
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
Last 30d: 134-163-6 (-3.3u)
WAS +3-110
0.5u
Kyle "Vince" Akins
Kyle "Vince" Akins
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
WAS +3-120
1.25u
Geoff aka OldManWhoBets
Geoff aka OldManWhoBets
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
NE -2.5-114
1u
FanDuel
Steak Friend
Steak Friend
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
WAS +3-102
1u
Matthew Freedman
Matthew Freedman
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
NE -2.5-117
1.17u
Projection: -4. For more, check out Fantasy Life.
Shady Biev
Shady Biev
Last 30d: 0-1-0 (-3.0u)
NE -2.5-119
1.79u
Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 0-2-0 (-0.5u)
NE -2.5-114
0.5u
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-odds-picks-week-9-betting-preview-for-every-game-every-team
Royals Props
Royals Props
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
J.Davis o7.5 Tackles + Ast-110
1u
Gilles Gallant
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 1-5-0 (-2.0u)
J.Dotson Anytime TD Scorer+300
3u
Bet at Bet365. Would still play to +270. Pats are No1 in DVOA to WR1 and No26 in DVOA to WR2. No Curtis Samuel. Love this spot for Dotson.
Royals Props
Royals Props
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
R.Stevenson o71.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
1u
Brian Bitler
Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 71-73-1 (-5.3u)
WAS +2.5+100
3u
Sunday Six Pack
Sunday Six Pack
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
WAS +3.5-110
1u
Raybon 1
Royals Props
Royals Props
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
L.Thomas u35.5 Rec Yds-115
1u
Prop Bet Guy
Prop Bet Guy
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
L.Thomas o32.5 Rec Yds-113
1.13u
Over in 5/7, and gets the matchup that has continued to produce outlier results vs TEs (6/8 opposing TEs have cleared their line vs NE). Pats rush defense is good (7th in DVOA, per FTN), and they will look to take away McLaurin (1st in DVOA vs WR1). WSH also 1st in pass play percentage this season. Play to o35.5.
Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes
Last 30d: 20-46-0 (-10.7u)
Under 40.5-115
0.87u
Available at FanDuel.This is a low total. But I do think it should be even a bit lower. The wind speeds are currently at 9 miles per hour, which results in a small downgrade. But also, the Patriots’ offense doesn’t generate explosive plays and just lost Kendrick Bourne for the season. The Commanders throw a ton, which stops the clock and can lead to overs. We saw the impact of that last week. But the model knows that and still shows value in the under. This number for me is closer to 36 than 40.5, so I’m fine taking the under.
Chris Raybon
Chris Raybon
Last 30d: 1-0-0 (+0.9u)
WAS +3.5-115
0.87u
Fire sale or not, these teams are evenly matched at worst. Road dogs +6.5 or less are 167-94-8 (64%) ATS with a +3.1 ATS margin when facing a home fav averaging fewer than 18.0 PPG since 2006 (NE 14.8 PPG).
Matt Moore
Matt Moore
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
WAS +3-105
1u

PRO Insights

Commanders logo

Commanders

WAS Insights
  • Featured Insight
    Commanders logoThe Commanders have averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game since Week 5 -- tied for second-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 2.0 passing touchdowns per game since Week 5 -- tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
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Patriots logo

Patriots

NE Insights
  • Featured Insight
    Patriots logoThe Commanders have gone three and out on 25% of their drives this season -- tied for fifth-worst in NFL. Patriots have forced three and outs on 24% of opponent drives this season -- tied for sixth-best in NFL.
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Commanders vs. Patriots Previews & Analysis

  • The 2 Sharpest Spread Predictions for NFL Week 9 article feature image

    The 2 Sharpest Spread Predictions for NFL Week 9

    PJ Walsh•
    Nov 5, 2023 UTC
  • Commanders vs. Patriots: A Great Spot to Back New England article feature image

    Commanders vs. Patriots: A Great Spot to Back New England

    Phillip Kall•
    Nov 5, 2023 UTC
  • Raybon's 4 Best Bets for the 1 p.m. ET Slate article feature image

    Raybon's 4 Best Bets for the 1 p.m. ET Slate

    Chris Raybon•
    Nov 5, 2023 UTC
  • NFL Predictive Analytics: Data-Driven Picks for Week 9 article feature image

    NFL Predictive Analytics: Data-Driven Picks for Week 9

    Action Predictive Analytics•
    Nov 5, 2023 UTC
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Commanders vs. Patriots Props

Prop Projections

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Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Commanders vs. Patriots Public Betting Percentages

Away Logo

Commanders

Public

Home Logo

Patriots

47%

Bets%

53%

Money%

NFL Public Betting Right Arrow

Betting Trends

  • Patriots are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
  • Patriots are 2-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
  • Patriots are 4-4 in their road games against the spread
  • The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Patriots' last 5 games
  • The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Patriots' 8 last games at home

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Patriots		7-9-13-4-14-4N/A7-9-1
Commanders		10-6-17-23-4-17-43-2-1

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Patriots		11-67-13-5N/A11-6
Commanders		11-66-35-36-55-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Patriots		4-13N/AN/AN/A4-13
Commanders		12-5N/AN/A9-23-3

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Oct 29th@MIAL 17-31+8.5 LO 46.5MIA +350
Oct 22ndBUFW 29-25+7.5 WO 41.5NE +310
Oct 15th@LVL 17-21+3 LU 41.5LV +124
Oct 8thNOL 0-34-2 LU 38.5NO -130
Oct 1st@DALL 3-38+6 LU 43DAL +220

Commanders vs. Patriots Injury Updates

Commanders Injuries

  • Antonio Hamilton
    CB

    Hamilton is out with quad

    Out

  • Essang Bassey
    CB

    Bassey is questionable with concussion

    Questionable

Patriots Injuries

    See more NFL Injuries Right Arrow
    Team Stats

    Total

    432
    Total Yards
    327
    77
    Total Plays
    63
    5.6
    Yards Per Play
    5.2

    Passing

    325
    YDS
    220
    29/45
    Comps/Atts
    24/44
    6.417
    YPA
    5
    1/1
    TDs/INTs
    1/1
    3/17
    Sacks/Yards
    0/0

    Rushing

    124
    Rush Yards
    107
    29
    Attempts
    19
    4.276
    YPC
    5.632
    1
    TDs
    1

    Turnovers

    1
    Fumbles Lost
    0
    1
    Interceptions
    1

    Efficiency

    1/4 25%
    Redzone
    1/1 100%
    9/17 0%
    3rd Down
    3/12 0%
    0/0 0%
    4th Down
    1/2 0%

    First Downs

    23
    Total
    18
    14
    Pass
    13
    8
    Rush
    4
    1
    Penalty
    1

    Misc

    4/30
    Penalties/Yards
    4/30
    37:10
    Possession
    22:50

    Commanders vs. Patriots Odds Comparison

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    Commanders at Patriots Team Totals

    MatchupOverUnder
    Commanders
    0-1
    o19.5-108
    u19.5-109
    Patriots
    1-0
    o21.5-105
    u21.5-112