Sweden enters Thursday's Olympic women's hockey bronze medal game against Switzerland with Kalshi's prediction market pricing in a victory at 68 cents, indicating a 68% probability of Sweden claiming its first women's hockey medal since 2006.
The market shows significant conviction in Sweden's chances, with the bid-ask spread ranging from 63% to 68% and substantial trading volume of 5,410 contracts.
This matchup represents one of the most surprising bronze medal games in Olympic women's hockey history. Multiple hockey analysts noted that few would have predicted Sweden and Switzerland facing off for bronze, with most expecting traditional powers like Czechia or Finland to reach this stage instead.
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Sweden vs Switzerland Odds
Sweden's path has been particularly impressive, advancing from Group B to earn its first medal opportunity in two decades. The nation has undergone rapid development since 2022, with waves of prospects entering the PWHL and NCAA systems, strengthening the program's foundation.
Meanwhile, Switzerland nearly pulled off a stunning upset against Canada in the semifinals, demonstrating that it can compete with hockey's elite.
The historical context adds intrigue to this matchup as Switzerland last won Olympic bronze in 2014, ironically defeating Sweden in that bronze medal game. Now, Sweden seeks revenge and hopes to end its 20-year medal drought in women's hockey.
With Canada and the United States predictably meeting in the gold medal game, this bronze medal contest will be the first of two Thursday clashes. The market's clear preference for Sweden reflects its superior tournament performance and depth, but Switzerland's star power and recent form keeps alive the possibility of an upset.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
