Eagles vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - December 20, 2025

Saquon Barkley Longest Rush ⬆️ 15.5 Yards (-115 @ BetMGM)(PHI) This has been slowly creeping up so I'm glad we got a 15.5 line. On DraftKings this line is up to 17.5. If we look at Barkley's last 10 games, he's either cleared this line or flirted with it. He has a longest rush of 14+ yards in 8 of his last 10. The two misses were against a tough MIN front and a DAL front with the addition of Quinnen Williams. Obviously this line hasn't been as good this season and will still be without star tackle Lane Johnson, but Barkley has owned this Commanders team in the last. Here are his longest rushes against this team the last 4 times he's faced them: 1/26: 60 yards 12/22: 68 yards 11/14: 39 yards 11/19: 36 yards Yes, that not total yardage, that's just his longest rush in those games! The matchup is still good this season. Over the past 6 weeks, WSH is allowing the 6th highest explosive run rate (6.0%) and 8th highest yards after contact per attempt (2.12). They are also allowing the third highest success rate (58.0%) and 2nd highest missed tackles forced per attempt (0.2). If you give Barkley a chance to get space or get loose, it's not going to go well. Barkley remains a super explosive runner, he just needs some room to operate. This matchup should give him just that. You can pivot to his rushing line as well, but we should also get an explosive run or two.

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Luvu is a player I fade in this market from time to time because, while he’s an exciting player, part of that comes from him lining up as an edge rusher at one of the highest rates for a LB. Since Dorance Armstrong suffered his season-ending injury in Week 7, Luvu has lined up on the edge on just under 50% of his snaps. That drastic shift in usage saw him average 5.7 tackles per game from Weeks 1–7, but that number has dropped to just 4.3 tackles per game from Weeks 8–15. He’s only cleared this number in 1 of 7 games (14%) since then. Lining up on the edge makes it much tougher for a LB to pick up consistent tackle opportunities. This is a plus matchup for edge rushers, which he may be 50% of the time, but it’s the most brutal matchup for traditional LBs, as the Eagles have provided opposing LBs with the lowest rate of tackle opportunities. That makes this a tough spot for Luvu to clear this number. I do think his tackle rate could regress up slightly from the 4.3 rate we’ve seen since the usage shift, but either way this number still feels a bit too high. I’m projecting him closer to 5.0 tackles with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5.

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Didn’t mean to add another unit woops

Sinnott is a TE I was higher on entering last year’s draft, and the Commanders scooped him up in the 2nd round, which was a rough landing spot for him to produce as a rookie because they already had legendary TE Zach Ertz. Ertz had played ahead of budding young TEs like Dallas Goedert and Trey McBride, who I was also high on and patiently awaited their chance to step up down the road. Sure enough, Ertz had been healthy and started the first 30 games of Sinnott’s career. However, Ertz tore his ACL in Week 14 and is out for the season, so last week was the first time we’ve seen how the Commanders would handle their TE rotation without him. I figured John Bates would operate as the lead TE, which he did with a 50% routes run rate, while Sinnott wasn’t too far behind at 38%. FB/TE hybrid Colson Yankoff had a 23% routes run rate, but he’s already been ruled out, which I think opens things up for Sinnott to see a bit more playing time today. Sinnott only ran 10 routes last week because Marcus Mariota only dropped back to pass 26 times in their 29–21 win over the Giants. In what should be a more pass-heavy game script, I have Mariota dropping back around 10 more times today, which should allow Sinnott a few more chances to catch 1–2 passes. I went back and watched all 10 of his routes closely and liked what I saw. Two of the routes ended in Mariota scrambles, so it’s unlikely Mariota continues scrambling on 20% of Sinnott’s routes going forward, which could open up additional target chances. On a couple of routes, Sinnott was a bit hesitant and clearly made some mistakes that should get ironed out as he gets more regular-season reps. However, there were also a few plays where he was wide open and Mariota simply didn’t see him. They must have noticed this on the sideline because late in the 4th quarter, Mariota finally hooked up with Sinnott for a wide-open 36-yard catch and run. I think they had chances for 1–2 similar plays earlier in the game. There was also a pass to the sideline that doesn’t get credited as a target, but Mariota was clearly looking Sinnott’s way when he threw it. So I think now is the perfect time to invest in the 2nd-year player the market is likely overlooking. It’s obviously a brutal matchup against the Eagles. If you recall, I faded Brock Bowers against them last week for that very reason, but Bowers was getting the Mitchell/DeJean treatment as the Raiders’ primary target. Sinnott shouldn’t get that same type of attention, and I think he could be higher up Mariota’s target pecking order today based on what I saw last week. I’m projecting him closer to 15.5 rec yards, with around a 59% chance to clear 11.5. This isn’t a “mathy” data play, since we’ve only seen Sinnott play one game without Ertz and is much more of a “this is the time to invest in a player I was high on who now finally has a chance to produce” that the market could be overlooking type of play.

Points preferably 45 of them

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Luck Rankings Not gonna get greedy and hope for a 7.5 when I like 7

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🔥 Week 16 Hot Read 🔥

Outside divisional game (***) Overall: 263-171-10,61% (ROI:17%) Season:8-8-0,50% (ROI:-4%) Open Air Unders: Divisional Drift Overall: 543-420-12,56% (ROI:9%) Season:20-18-0,53% (ROI: