Eagles vs. Giants Odds & Betting Predictions - October 10, 2025

Kill yourself

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/qssureiWkXb

King Jalen

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Hasn’t touched 100 yet. No better time than the present to change that.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Jaxson Dart has two starts so far, with 20 attempts in one and 40 in the other. Much like the market, I expect him to land somewhere in the middle tonight. The Giants have been more run heavy with Dart under center, carrying a -3.7% pass rate over expected. Last week’s spike in attempts was mostly due to fluky plays that created extra possessions in a pass-heavy script. On the Saints’ 5th drive, Rashid Shaheed scored on an 87-yard TD on the first play, and in the fourth quarter Cam Skattebo fumbled at the end of a 12-play drive, which was returned 86 yards for another Saints TD. Both plays handed the ball right back to the Giants and I would say created 5+ extra pass attempts. They also ran 70 total plays, which is high. That is not to say it cannot happen again as a 7-point home underdog, but I already laid out why I like the Giants to cover and keep this game close with a more run-heavy plan against what is essentially a run funnel Eagles defense..especially if Jalen Carter (questionable) sits on the short week. Dart also has several underlying traits that naturally lower his attempts relative to dropbacks. He owns a 17.3% scramble rate, sixth highest among qualified QBs, and that is not a fluke. I have said from the jump that he profiles as a low-end QB1 in fantasy because of his legs, and losing Malik Nabers should only encourage him to run rather than force throws. Speaking of which, he has only attempted a pass into tight coverage 6.7% of the time (second lowest in the league), which further supports the idea that he tucks and runs when he does not see a clean window. He also has just one throwaway on 75 attempts, by far the lowest rate in the league, which remains one of the most underrated stats when betting pass attempt props. Dart’s over has apparently been the most-bet prop on the slate, but I think the market is overlooking everything above.. particularly the likelihood of a competitive game. One final edge is Giants punter Jamie Gillan, who has mastered the new kickoff rules and is allowing a league-best 19.4-yard average starting field position. That forces longer Eagles drives or better field position for the Giants, both of which only help this number stay down. I am projecting Dart at 30.1 attempts, giving him roughly 60% to stay under 31.5.

The Giants took Abdul Carter with the 3rd overall pick, and he was arguably the best pure talent in this year’s class with Micah Parsons comparisons across the board. Through 5 games, he has only registered 0.5 sacks, but his underlying metrics tell a completely different story. He is already playing at an elite level and I want to invest in his sack market before the results catch up and books adjust. Carter has 25 total pressures, 7th most in the league, and 15 of them have been quick pressures (within three seconds), which is tied with Will Anderson Jr. for the league lead. Based on his pressure profile, I project 3.42 expected sacks to date. Compared to his 0.5 actual, that is a +2.92 sack differential, the largest in what are essentially my internal sack “luck rankings.” That makes him a clear buy-low candidate at this price. It is not the easiest matchup.. he will be facing Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata, and Jalen Hurts is one of the tougher quarterbacks to finish on even when pressured. But even baking that into the projection, I still get this much closer to a coin flip. Here are the results from my sack simulator where I ran tonight’s matchup 10,000 times to pull Carter’s true odds: (can see chart in article up on Action) Just watching his film confirms it. He already looks like a star in the making and has had multiple near-sacks where a rookie mistake or slight misstep cost him. The time to buy is now, even in a tougher matchup.

In Jalen We Trust

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Full write up will be in my TNF game guide (out tomorrow morning)

Collab with @gneiffer07 Prime matchup for AJ vs man coverage and Giants play man defense at 2nd-highest rate in NFL

Super small here. Show some value in what should be super low scoring game but despise TNF and lots of injury uncertainty.

Luck Rankings

Collab with @MillyProps

There is a value opportunity on Jaxson Dart's TD passes prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.07 TD passes, while sportsbooks imply 1.25. The model believes there is a 50% chance he records fewer than 0.5 TD passes, so there is some value on the under at +165. (This play is good down to at least +131.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

POD

Projecting Saquon Barkley as in and Landon Dickerson as out, I have this total at 45. No Darius Slayton could make explosives harder for the Giants, but I do think their offensive line has played better than expected since Andrew Thomas' return.

I’m a square

Week 6 Lookahead @wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/BHq4lSblaXb

WEEK 6 LOOKAHEAD : This is one of the easier Lookahead picks of the year if you can get Eagles -7 or anything below the key number, -6.5 at BetMGM. This is a division rivalry, but is it really a rivalry? Philadelphia has won seven of the last eight meetings, and the Eagles sat their starters in the one loss in Week 18. Philly won all of the other seven games by at least six points, with an average margin of victory of 18.4 points! These games aren't even watchable. And then there's the Saquon Barkley angle. It's a homecoming and revenge game from Barkley, and he dominated in his return to New York last year, a 28-3 Eagles win. Even in a historic season, Barkley had his best YPC versus any opponent against these Giants at 10.4. This year's Giants rank dead last against the run by DVOA, so it could be a big night for Saquon. It may also be a tough night for Jaxson Dart, making his third career start on a short week of prep against this great Vic Fangio secondary, and without Malik Nabers. Thursday night favorites of seven or more points are 44-30 ATS (60%). This is Philly all the way, and there's no way we'll get this one below the starter next week. Set it and forget it — and make alternate Thursday night plans.