Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - April 4, 2023

Diamondbacks at Padres

8:10 pm • MLB Network

Arizona Diamondbacks

0-0

8 - 6

San Diego Padres

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Y.Darvish			4.56	8-10
Z.Gallen			3.47	17-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 0-0	+1.5-168	o7-115	+130
Padres 0-0	-1.5+137	u7-105	-155

Tuesday 8:10 p.m.

April 04, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

ARI +125 (F5)

0.4u

J.Cronenworth o0.5 RBI+250

0.5u

Piggybacking my over 0.5 hits bet as this is a good time to buy low on Cronenworth. He tends to struggle against fastballs 95+ mph, but Gallen is typically in the 93-94 range. Gallen also could struggle a bit with the new shift rules as he has a .243 wOBA allowed with a shift vs. .291 wOBA allowed with no shift. Projecting this closer to +200

ARI +134

0.67u

J.Cronenworth o0.5 Hits-135

BetMGM: Good time to buy low on Cronenworth who is off to a terrible start. He has been extremely unlucky with a .077 BABIP so far. He should eventually benefit from the new shift rules and Gallen is definitely going to be hurt by them. Gallen has allowed a career .247 BABIP with a shift and a .293 BABIP with no shift. Projecting this closer to -155

ARI +120 (F5)

Bet365 1:29.

ARI +125

0.63u

X.Bogaerts o0.5 Doubles+425

0.1u

Bet at Bet365. Taking each HR bet I like and adding Double prop to each. All for 0.1U.

X.Bogaerts o0.5 HR+750

0.75u

Bet at Caesars. Taking each HR bet I like and adding Double prop to each. All for 0.1U.

SD -147 (F5)

K.Marte o1.5 Total Bases+150

$34.00

SD -146

Under 3.5 (F5)+106

1.5u

2U on FD… Value here is too good… other .5U with odds boost

Under 3.5 (F5)+159

0.5u

fd 50% boost +106

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The Padres were 26-13 (.667) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 -- 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Trent Grisham slugged just .349 last season -- 12th worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Zac Gallen allowed a SLG of just .253 vs left-handed batters last season -- second best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .156 (67-for-429) against Yu Darvish's fastball since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .262 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 4th	ARI	W 5-4	-1.5 L	O 8.5	SD -140
Apr 2nd	COL	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 8	SD -207
Apr 2nd	COL	W 8-4	-1.5 W	O 8.5	SD -255
Apr 1st	COL	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8	COL -200
Mar 31st	COL	L 2-7	-1.5 L	O 7	COL -225

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Gallen, P	86	6	3	4
RK.Ginkel, P	11	1	1	0
RD.Jameson, P	38	2	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Rojas, 3B	3-3	1	2
2K.Marte, 2B	1-5	0	0
3L.Gurriel, DH	0-4	0	1
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	0	0
5C.Carroll, LF	0-5	0	0
6J.McCarthy, RF	2-3	2	0
7A.Thomas, CF	0-3	1	0
8G.Perdomo, SS	1-1	3	3
9J.Herrera, C	2-3	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RY.Darvish, P	91	5	3	1
RN.Crismatt, P	28	1	1	3
RD. Tapia, P	12	1	0	0
RL.Garcia, P	21	0.1	0	4
RB.Honeywell, P	26	1.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Grisham, CF	1-5	1	1	1
2J.Soto, LF	2-5	1	0	0
3M.Machado, DH	0-1	0	0	0
3N. Cruz, PH	1-4	1	1	1
3N. Cruz, DH	1-4	1	1	1
4X.Bogaerts, SS	2-4	2	1	2
5J.Cronenworth, 2B	3-4	1	0	0
6M.Carpenter, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Nola, C	1-3	0	0	1
8D.Dahl, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Azocar, RF	0-0	0	0	0
8R. Odor, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9H.Kim, 3B	0-4	0	0	0