Mets vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - June 23, 2024

Mets at Cubs

11:10 pm • ESPN

New York Mets

42-24

5 - 2

Chicago Cubs

40-25

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Assad			3.74	7-6
L.Severino			3.91	11-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 42-24	-1.5+160	o8.5-104	-105
Cubs 40-25	+1.5-185	u8.5-115	-113

Sunday 11:10 p.m.

June 23, 2024

Wrigley FieldChicago

CHC -110

CHC -1.5+180

Over 8.5-110

NYM -104

0.96u

NYM -110 (F5)

0.91u

Over 8.5-105

1.05u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-120

CHC -112

Under 8.5-115

0.87u

L.Severino u5.5 Hits Allowed-105

0.95u

CHC -115

$1150.00

Under 8-105

0.5u

Bet to -110

L.Severino u5.5 Ks-142

1.42u

Under in 10/14, including 10/L12 (only reaching 6 in the two overs). Has pitched much worse on the road (4.86 ERA). Even at a 24% rolling 30 day K% (only 21% L14 days), this line reads as one K too high for Sevy.

J.Assad u16.5 Outs-123

Assad under in 9/15, and has only finished 6 IP three times. Short leash the third time through (.906 OPS allowed). Poor pitch efficiency (4.04 is 15th highest). And he’s cooled down significantly from his hot start - 4.75 ERA, 4.14 xERA over his L7 starts. Mets bats had been hot until Taillon got to them Saturday - but now with the Cubs pen in good shape, I like Assad to continue to have a short leash.

Featured Insight
The Mets have scored three or more runs in an inning 16 times (11%) this month -- highest in MLB. Cubs have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 8% of innings played this month -- tied for third highest in MLB.

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The Cubs are just 28-4 (.875) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .942.

Cody Bellinger struck out in 27% of PA's in the 2022 season -- 10th highest in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Edwin Diaz had a strikeout rate of 50% in the 2022 season -- highest among qualified RPs-- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .127 (21-for-165) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since last season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .253 -- 100th Percentile.

Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .406 (192 PA's) with runners in scoring position since last season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .737 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 18-16 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Cubs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 17 of Cubs' 31 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	34-31	16-15	18-16	25-19	9-12
Mets	36-30	18-13	18-17	24-24	12-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	34-27-4	17-12-2	17-15-2	22-19-3	12-8-1
Mets	24-41-1	11-19-1	13-22	21-26-1	3-15

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	40-25	20-11	20-14	31-13	9-12
Mets	42-24	24-7	18-17	33-15	9-9

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 22nd	NYM	W 8-1	+1.5 W	U 11	CHC +107
Jun 21st	NYM	L 1-11	-1.5 L	O 8	NYM -155
Jun 19th	SF	W 6-5	+1.5 W	O 10.5	CHC -112
Jun 19th	SF	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 9.5	CHC -118
Jun 18th	SF	L 6-7	+1.5 W	O 10.5	SF -117

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Jose Siri
OF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Justin Steele
P
Steele is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Severino, P	102	6	10	0
RD.Nunez, P	23	1	1	2
RR.Garrett, P	16	1	1	0
RE.Diaz, P	0	0	0	0
RD.Smith, P	12	0.2	1	0
LJ.Diekman, P	3	0.1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	1-4	1	1	2
2B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	1	1	1
3J.Martinez, DH	1-4	0	0	1
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5F.Alvarez, C	1-3	0	0	0
6D.Stewart, RF	2-3	0	0	0
6T.Taylor, PR	0-1	0	0	0
6T.Taylor, RF	0-1	0	0	0
7M.Vientos, 3B	1-4	1	1	1
7J.Iglesias, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
8J.McNeil, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
9H.Bader, CF	2-3	2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Assad, P	90	4.1	0	4
RK.Thompson, P	45	2.1	2	0
RT.Miller, P	18	1.1	1	1
LL.Little, P	15	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1N.Hoerner, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
2M.Busch, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
3C.Bellinger, RF	1-4	0	0	0
4S.Suzuki, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5I.Happ, LF	1-4	1	0	0
6C.Morel, 3B	1-4	1	1	2
7D.Swanson, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	0-3	0	0	0
8P.Wisdom, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9M.Amaya, C	1-3	0	0	0