Mets vs. Giants Odds & Betting Predictions - April 4, 2026

The Giants just updated their lineup by scratching Casey Schmitt for Jerar Encarnacion. It’s an unfortunate blow to my McLean prop as I’m only projecting his under 5.5 closer to -115 now. Saw FanDuel is offering this at +210 but I have this closer to +160 so thought this is a good way to hedge a bit on the unexpected news. Hopefully thread the needle here and hit both.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I’m high on McLean’s talent and upside. He’s posted a ridiculous 31% K rate over his first 53 MLB innings. Most projection systems still have him in the 23-24% range, which I think is too low. I’m closer to 27%. Part of that early K success has come from his ability to get called strikes. Hitters have only swung at 59% of his pitches in the zone, which is 8% below league average. That’s one of the toughest things for a pitcher to sustain, and very few guys can maintain a number that low year over year. If McLean ends up being one of them, then sure, he could stick around a 31% K rate or even higher. But I do expect some regression there. He had 8 Ks in his first start, but it was a softer matchup against the Pirates, and only 33% of his pitches were on the edge, which suggests he was missing spots more than the results would indicate. This is a tougher setup. The Giants lineup features two of the hardest hitters to strike out in Luis Arraez and Jung Hoo Lee, and both moved up one spot in the order today. That quietly lowers his upside. I have him facing around 23.5 hitters, which means Lee could realistically be his last batter instead of being on deck. Those are the kinds of subtle factors my sim picks up, and it’s why I have this closer to -130. Getting +105 here is enough for me to take a shot on the under.

@Zerillo 60-Grade https://myaction.app/mJC4AOIv21b

Bet to -115

Friday opener. Bet to -140. Teams have to play Thursday so price target may adjust or would size normally