Mets vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - September 11, 2025

This line is laughable. Sure, the Mets have lost 5 straight games, but they have no business being +115 against a depleted Phillies lineup. Philadelphia remains without Trea Turner and Alec Bohm, and while their absence hasn’t been felt yet, it certainly will soon. I’m not the biggest David Peterson fan, but this guy just gets outs. This is thanks in large part to his elite 56.1% ground ball rate (94th percentile). Peterson currently owns a 3.72 ERA with a 3.35 FIP and 3.66 xFIP. He has also been better on the road. The Phillies lineup becomes a below average group without Turner and Bohm, and they also lose speed on the base paths. As the Mets have been uncompetitive in the last two days, they’ve saved their best bullpen arms. Rogers, Raley, Garrett, and Diaz have all not pitched in over three days and should be ready to go. This is a must win game for New York, and manager Carlos Mendoza will treat it as such. Peterson and every reliever will have a short leash if they begin to struggle. Jesus Luzardo is good, but we all know he’s prone to blowups. He ended last season with a 5.00 ERA and has gone through rough stretches this season. He’s a very good pitcher, but he is extremely hit or miss. Luzardo has also shown an odd decline in his fastball, which holds a -3 run value. That’s a concern given it’s his most used pitch. On top of that, he has been significantly worse at home, with a 4.50 ERA compared to a 3.55 ERA on the road. Despite their recent skid, the Mets lead MLB in wRC+ against left handed pitching over the past month. The Phillies also used Kerkering heavily last night and Robertson heavily in the days before that, so we could be looking at the B version of the Phillies bullpen tonight. I’ll take the undervalued Mets in a desperation spot.

Bet to +112