Phillies vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - July 7, 2024

Phillies at Braves

5:35 pm • BSSE

Philadelphia Phillies

49-35

0 - 6

Atlanta Braves

38-45

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Lopez			1.99	8-5
M.Mercado			11.08	1-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 49-35	+1.5-154	o8-113	+136
Braves 38-45	-1.5+129	u8-108	-162

Sunday 5:35 p.m.

July 07, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

PHI +145

M.Mercado o4.5 Ks+100

T.Turner o1.5 Total Bases-110

A.Bohm o1.5 Total Bases+100

PHI +142

Over 8.5-103

1.55u

R.Lopez u17.5 Outs-125

1.25u

Under in 7/L11 and pitching for the second time on regular rest this season. Has struggled a bit with control of late (4 BB in each of his L2 starts) and he’s another guy who could be showing some fatigue as he’s pitching for the first time as a full time starter in 5 seasons.

PHI +142

1.5u

PHI +150

Under 8.5-114

0.5u

Bet to -115

PHI +142

ATL -1.5+120

1.2u

PHI +154

PHI +160

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to +140

Featured Insight
Phillies RPs have a strikeout rate of 33% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- third highest in MLB. Braves right-handed hitters have struck out 26% against LHP over the last two weeks -- third highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Braves have won 61% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- third best in MLB. Phillies have won just 41% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- fourth worst in MLB.

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Phillies vs Braves: Fade the Favorite
Sean Paul•
Jul 7, 2024 UTC
Sunday's Early PRO Edge: Phillies-Braves
Action AI•
Jul 7, 2024 UTC

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The Phillies are 61-41 (.598) after a loss since the 2023 season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .496.

The Braves are 120-8 (.938) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .898.

Nick Castellanos has struck out in 25% of PA's since the 2022 season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 14th Percentile. Pierce Johnson has a strikeout rate of 32% since the 2022 season -- tied for 13th highest among qualified RPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Matt Olson has an OPS of .865 since the 2022 season -- 12th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Jose Ruiz has allowed an OPS of .796 (574 PAs) since the 2022 season -- seventh worst among qualified RPs-- fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .067 (4-for-60) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .252 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 17-26 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 13 of Braves' 40 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	36-47	19-21	17-26	27-38	9-9
Phillies	42-42	19-21	23-21	32-33	10-9

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	32-46-5	13-24-3	19-22-2	26-36-3	6-10-2
Phillies	34-46-4	20-18-2	14-28-2	27-34-4	7-12

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	38-45	23-17	15-28	34-31	4-14
Phillies	49-35	26-14	23-21	42-23	7-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 6th	PHI	W 5-1	+1.5 W	U 8	ATL -125
Jul 5th	PHI	L 6-8	-1.5 L	O 7.5	PHI -142
Jul 4th	SF	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	SF -130
Jul 3rd	SF	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	ATL -209
Jul 2nd	SF	L 3-5	-1.5 L	U 8	SF -198

Chris Sale
SP
Sale is out with ribs
Out
Joe Jimenez
RP
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Austin Cox
RP
Cox is out with knee
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Nacho Alvarez
SS
Alvarez is out with wrist
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Mercado, P	57	1.2	1	5
RJ.Ruiz, P	20	1.1	1	0
LM.Strahm, P	9	1	1	0
RT.Phillips, P	53	4	7	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Stott, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	0-3	0	0	0
3A.Bohm, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
4B.Marsh, RF	0-3	0	0	0
5N.Castellanos, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6K.Clemens, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
6E.Sosa, PH	1-1	0	0	0
7W.Merrifield, LF	2-4	0	0	0
8G.Stubbs, C	0-3	0	0	0
8C.Pache, PH	1-1	0	0	0
9J.Rojas, CF	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RR.Lopez, P	91	6	6
LD.Lee, P	19	1	1
RP.Johnson, P	14	1	2
LA.Bummer, P	15	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Kelenic, CF	1-3	1	1	3
2O.Albies, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
5M.Ozuna, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6T.d'Arnaud, C	0-4	0	0	0
7A.Duvall, RF	3-4	1	1	1
8O.Arcia, SS	1-4	1	0	0
9E.White, LF	2-4	2	1	1