Pirates vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - June 22, 2023

Pirates at Marlins

10:40 pm • BSFL

Pittsburgh Pirates

24-23

4 - 6

Miami Marlins

22-26

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Garrett			3.66	9-7
M.Keller			4.21	13-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 24-23	N/A	N/A	N/A
Marlins 22-26	N/A	N/A	N/A

Thursday 10:40 p.m.

June 22, 2023

loanDepot parkMiami

B.Garrett o5.5 Ks-130

MIA -1-110

Over 6.5-117

has gotten laughably low

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-140

$71.43

PIT +145

0.5u

Another move against line movement, but I think this one has hit the point of resistance - Keller & Garrett have very similar estimators overall - MIA 102/93/106 wRC+ Hm/v RHP/L7 days, PIT 97/107/30 (going against the heat, but PIT better v LHP) - PIT small def edge (5 Runs Prevented) - the only large edge for MIA is the bullpen, but it's a small risk I'll take for a much better price than F5.

PIT +148

0.5u

MIA -126

Took this last night but have no memory of it. Think line has gotten out of hand a bit so im gonna hedge/arbitrage Pirates ML .5U

MIA u2.5 (F5)-175

0.57u

MIA -155

B.Garrett o5.5 Ks-118

0.85u

PIT +125

0.5u

Bet to +112

PIT +112 (F5)

0.84u

PIT +115

0.5u

PIT +104 (F5)

0.52u

Bet to +102

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The Marlins are 33-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.

The Pirates are 33-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.

The Marlins are just 8-8 (.500) when they've hit 2 or more home runs this season -- tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.

The Pirates are just 16-24 (.400) after a road win since last season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.

32% of Bryan De La Cruz strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- tied for 15th highest in MLB-- 91st Percentile. 60% of Mitch Keller's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

Jacob Stallings is slugging just .223 this season -- fourth worst among hitters with at least 108 total PA's-- first Percentile. Mitch Keller has allowed a SLG of just .313 vs right-handed batters this season -- eighth best among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (350/757) with two-strikes since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 99th Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .163 (7 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on low fastballs this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .386 -- 98th Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .362 (34-for-94) against Braxton Garrett this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .249 -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 9-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 14 of Marlins' 27 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	21-27	12-15	9-12	13-16	8-11
Pirates	25-22	13-13	12-9	15-12	9-10

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	29-17-2	14-13	15-4-2	15-14	14-3-2
Pirates	25-21-1	16-10	9-11-1	16-11	8-10-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	22-26	15-12	7-14	17-12	5-14
Pirates	24-23	13-13	11-10	16-11	7-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 21st	TOR	L 3-6	-	-	-
Jun 20th	TOR	L 0-2	-	-	-
Jun 19th	TOR	W 11-0	-	-	-
Jun 18th	@WSH	W 4-2	-	-	-
Jun 17th	@WSH	W 5-2	-	-	-

Jared Jones
SP
Jones is out with elbow
Out

Maximo Acosta
SS
Acosta is out with oblique
Out
Adam Mazur
SP
Mazur is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	107	7	5	1
RD.Moreta, P	15	0	0	3
RC.Mlodzinski, P	19	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Hayes, 3B	2-4	1	1	1
2A.McCutchen, DH	0-3	0	0	0
3C.Joe, LF	1-4	1	0	0
3C.Joe, RF	1-4	1	0	0
4C.Santana, 1B	1-4	1	0	1
5R.Castro, SS	0-4	0	0	0
5R.Castro, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Suwinski, CF	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Suwinski, LF	0-4	0	0	0
7H.Davis, RF	1-2	1	1	1
7T.Marcano, SS	0-0	0	0	0
7J.Delay, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Bae, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Bae, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Hedges, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Garrett, P	88	7	13	1
LA.Nardi, P	18	0.2	1	2
RH.Brazoban, P	4	0.1	0	0
LA.Puk, P	19	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
2J.Soler, DH	1-4	1	0	0
3B.De La Cruz, LF	1-4	1	0	2
4J.Sanchez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5G.Cooper, 1B	3-4	2	1	3
6J.Berti, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
7J.Wendle, SS	1-3	0	0	1
8N.Fortes, C	0-4	0	0	0
9J. Davis, CF	1-3	1	0	0