Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 1, 2025

Red Sox at Blue Jays

11:07 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

78-64

2 - 4

Toronto Blue Jays

82-59

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Berrios			4.01	9-5
T.Houck			8.04	0-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 78-64	-1.5	-1.5+146	o8.5-117	-113
Blue Jays 82-59	u8.5	+1.5-176	u8.5-102	-105

Thursday 11:07 p.m.

May 01, 2025

Rogers CentreToronto

J.Berrios u5.5 Ks-140

0.5u

Have a lean on the under here. Projections have him around 5.1-5.3 but if you look at the underlying metrics, Berrios is generating his lowest swinging strike rate in his career (7.7%) and getting the highest called strike percentage of his career (19.6%). He’s also struggling with walks this season (15 in 34 innings) which I hope continues to elevate his pitch count. This is a good strikeout matchup for him but based on the underlying metrics, I’m willing to take a shot on the under here.

BOS -116

1.16u

J.Berrios o1.5 BB-125

J.Duran o1.5 Total Bases-115

0.86u

V.Guerrero o1.5 Total Bases+110

0.83u

J.Berrios o1.5 BB-135

1.35u

TOR +107

2.14u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-111

Under 8.5-103

Over 4.5 (F5)-105

1.05u

BOS -105

Red Sox have won 6 of last 8 in Toronto – confident at Rogers Centre. Houck owns this matchup – 1 ER in 6.2 IP vs TOR this April, 0 ER in 5 IP here last Sept. Jays hitting just .202 last 10 games, only 3.47 runs/gm on season. Red Sox score 5.12 – big edge. Toronto bats ice cold vs RHP – just .228 avg, no depth beyond Vlad & Bo. Boston bullpen sharper: 3.07 ERA vs Jays' 3.14, and just 2.87 last 3 games. Red Sox hitting .250 on season vs Jays .234. Toronto’s lineup out of sync – .228 vs righties, lacks depth behind Vladdy/ Bichette. Jays' pen shakier lately – 4.64 ERA last 3 games.

BOS -110 (F5)

R.Devers o0.5 HR+375

0.5u

BOS -105

TOR -106

0.5u

Bet to -115

Red Sox vs Blue Jays: +210 SGP for Thursday
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MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays are 40-32 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 41 of Blue Jays' 69 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	82-59	42-27	40-32	34-36	47-22
Red Sox	76-66	39-33	37-33	47-44	29-20

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	79-57-5	41-26-2	38-31-3	41-28-1	37-28-4
Red Sox	70-69-3	32-38-2	38-31-1	46-43-2	24-24-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	82-59	45-24	37-35	41-29	40-29
Red Sox	78-64	44-28	34-36	55-36	23-26

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	BOS	W 7-6	+1.5 W	O 9.5	TOR -110
Apr 29th	BOS	L 2-10	+1.5 L	O 7.5	BOS +120
Apr 27th	@NYY	L 1-5	+1.5 L	U 8.5	NYY +136
Apr 27th	@NYY	L 2-11	+1.5 L	O 8.5	NYY +170
Apr 25th	@NYY	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 9	TOR +126

Anthony Santander
OF
Santander is out with shoulder
Out
Alek Manoah
P
Manoah is out with elbow
Out
Bowden Francis
P
Francis is out with shoulder
Out

Tanner Houck
P
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Jovani Moran
P
Moran is out with arm
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P		86	7	6	1
RJ.Slaten, P		29	1	0	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	1-4	0	0
2R.Devers, DH	1-3	0	0
3A.Bregman, 3B	1-4	0	2
4W.Abreu, RF	0-4	0	0
5T.Story, SS	1-4	0	0
6T.Casas, 1B	1-4	0	0
7R.Refsnyder, LF	1-4	1	0
8D.Hamilton, 2B	1-3	1	0
9C.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Berrios, P	88	6.2	8	2
LM.Fluharty, P	6	1.1	0	0
RY.Garcia, P	12	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Bichette, SS	1-4	1	0	0
2V.Guerrero, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
3A.Santander, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4D.Varsho, CF	1-3	1	1	1
5A.Kirk, C	1-4	0	0	0
6A.Barger, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
6A.Gimenez, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
7A.Roden, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Clement, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Clement, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
9N.Lukes, RF	2-3	1	0	0