Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - May 5, 2023

Red Sox at Phillies

11:05 pm • NBCS-PH

Boston Red Sox

0-0

5 - 3

Philadelphia Phillies

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Z.Wheeler			3.61	13-6
C.Sale			4.30	6-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	+1.5-157	o8-110	+140
Phillies 0-0	-1.5+130	u8-110	-166

Friday 11:05 p.m.

May 05, 2023

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

Over 8-110

1.1u

PHI -165

1.65u

PHI -155

1.55u

M.Yoshida o1.5 Total Bases+160

0.5u

This makes no sense to me lol. Hit in 13/14.

C.Sale u6.5 Ks+104

Available at FanDuel. I like the Red Sox moneyline, which doesn't mesh well with this bet. But Sale has been volatile even in his improved state. He has three starts with reduced sinker usage, which has helped his batted-ball data a ton. But his strikeout marks in those are 11, 0, and 5. So, he's volatile, and we're getting plus money on the under for a big number. I have Sale projected for 5.6 strikeouts tonight, giving us some cushion for him to do well and for the under to still hit.

BOS +136

1.09u

Available at FanDuel. Chris Sale got off to a brutal start to the season but seems to have turned things around. He cut back on his sinker usage in his fourth start of the year. In three starts since, he's letting up just a 31.3% hard-hit rate. He did have one clunker of a game in there, but the other two were fantastic. I've also been decently surprised by Boston's offense, which has a 120 wRC+ on the active roster against righties this year. The implied win odds at +136 are just 42.4%, and I've got Boston above 45% to win here.

C.Sale o5.5 Ks-146

0.68u

PHI -153

0.5u

PHI -149

1.49u

PHI -168 (F5)

0.84u

Bet to -180

PHI -145

0.73u

Bet to -160

Over 8-105

1.05u

Project 9.1; Red Sox hitting righties T10 rate, Phillies pen struggling w ERA 5.59

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The Phillies are just 11-3 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season -- 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.

The Red Sox are 17-3 (.850) when scoring 5 or more runs this season -- tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Red Sox are 6-6 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.

28% of Rafael Devers strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- 12th highest in MLB-- 91st Percentile. 54% of Zack Wheeler's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- seventh highest among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP-- 96th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has a strike rate of just 51% (78/152) on sliders this season -- 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% -- third Percentile.

Chris Sale has walked 1 of 45 batters (2%) -- tied for 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% -- 95th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.5 MPH on inside pitches since the 2020 season (603 balls in play) -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: 85.4

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 3rd	@LAD	L 6-10	+1.5 L	O 9	LAD +104
May 3rd	@LAD	L 1-13	+1.5 L	O 7.5	LAD +120
May 2nd	@LAD	L 4-13	+1.5 L	O 9	LAD +145
Apr 30th	@HOU	L 3-4	+1.5 W	U 9	HOU +136
Apr 29th	@HOU	W 6-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	PHI +112

Max Kepler
OF
Kepler is out with knee
Out
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sale, P	98	6	10	3
LR. Bleier, P	20	1	1	0
RC.Martin, P	5	1	0	0
RK.Jansen, P	22	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1R. Tapia, RF	1-5	2	0
1R. Tapia, LF	1-5	2	0
2M.Yoshida, LF	1-4	1	0
2A.Verdugo, PR	0-0	0	0
2A.Verdugo, RF	0-0	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	0-5	0	1
4R.Devers, 3B	1-3	0	1
5J.Duran, CF	1-4	1	0
6K.Hernandez, SS	2-4	1	1
7T.Casas, 1B	0-3	0	1
8E.Valdez, 2B	2-3	0	1
8C. Arroyo, PH	0-1	0	0
8C. Arroyo, 2B	0-1	0	0
9C.Wong, C	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Wheeler, P	97	5.1	5	4
RC.Brogdon, P	17	0.2	0	0
LG.Soto, P	12	1	1	0
LA. Vasquez, P	30	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1K.Schwarber, LF	0-5	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	1-5	0	0
3B.Harper, DH	1-4	1	0
4N.Castellanos, RF	2-4	1	1
5J.Realmuto, C	1-4	1	1
6A.Bohm, 1B	1-3	0	1
7J. Harrison, 2B	1-3	0	0
7B.Stott, PH	0-1	0	0
8E.Sosa, 3B	1-3	0	0
9D. Guthrie, CF	0-3	0	0
9B.Marsh, PH	0-0	0	0