Tigers vs. Mariners Odds & Betting Predictions - July 15, 2023

Tigers at Mariners

2:10 am • MLB Network

Detroit Tigers

0-0

5 - 4

Seattle Mariners

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L.Castillo			3.34	14-9
E.Rodriguez			3.30	13-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Tigers 0-0	+1.5-140	o7-115	+150
Mariners 0-0	-1.5+115	u7-105	-185

Saturday 2:10 a.m.

July 15, 2023

T-Mobile ParkSeattle

Under 7-105

1.05u

E.Rodriguez u17.5 Outs-120

Did not look very sharp coming back from injury, and kept at 79 pitches. Wouldn’t be shocked if he’s capped at ~90 today after a long lay off. Mariners will drive up his pitch count (3rd in pitches per PA). And SEA has been hitting lefties well (104 wRC+ over the L30 days). Also, good history vs Eduardo.

L.Castillo u7.5 Ks-120

Projecting closer to -170

DET +166

1.16u

Available at FanDuel. Eduardo Rodriguez got bounced around in his first start off the IL, but his underlying numbers were good. He let up just three hard-hit balls on 11 balls in play, and he racked up 7 strikeouts. So it seems as if he got a bit unlucky. His velocity was good, and he was willing to throw his slider and cutter. That gives me faith that he's healthy. In 8 starts with fewer sinkers, Rodriguez has let up just 34.4% hard-hit rate with a 29.3% strikeout rate. Luis Castillo is a really solid pitcher on the opposing side, but he has had some issues with hard contact at times. I'd expect a low-scoring, tight game, and that favors taking the team with just 37.6% implied win odds.

DET +170

0.34u

DET +172

0.86u

Bet to +155

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The Tigers are just 30-3 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.

Javier Baez is batting just .233 since last season -- 15th worst in MLB-- 12th Percentile. Right handed batters are hitting just .204 (101-for-496) against Luis Castillo since last season -- tied for 10th best among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

Spencer Torkelson is slugging just .359 since last season -- tied for fifth worst in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Luis Castillo has allowed a SLG of just .327 vs right-handed batters since last season -- 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mariners are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mariners' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Mariners' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	74-88	38-43	36-45	47-62	26-26
Tigers	87-75	39-42	48-33	27-39	60-36

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mariners	76-76-10	31-45-5	45-31-5	50-55-4	25-21-6
Tigers	79-78-5	36-43-2	43-35-3	31-32-3	48-46-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	85-77	49-32	36-45	62-47	23-29
Tigers	86-76	43-38	43-38	38-28	48-48

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 9th	@HOU	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 8	SEA -140
Jul 8th	@HOU	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 7	HOU +125
Jul 8th	@HOU	W 10-1	-1.5 W	O 7	SEA -105
Jul 7th	@HOU	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 8	SEA -145
Jul 6th	@SF	L 0-2	+1.5 L	U 8.5	SF +145

Javier Baez
IF
Baez is out with back
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Gipson-Long is out with groin
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LE.Rodriguez, P	88	5	7	2
RJ.Cisnero, P	6	1	1	0
LT.Holton, P	20	1.1	2	0
RJ.Foley, P	19	0.2	2	1
RA.Lange, P	29	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Z.McKinstry, 3B	1-5	0	0	0
1Z.McKinstry, RF	1-5	0	0	0
2R.Greene, DH	0-4	0	0	0
3S.Torkelson, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
4K.Carpenter, RF	1-3	1	1	2
4Z.Short, PH	0-0	0	0	0
4Z.Short, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
5M.Vierling, CF	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Baez, SS	0-4	1	0	0
7N.Maton, 2B	1-3	1	1	2
8A.Baddoo, LF	1-3	1	1	1
9J.Rogers, C	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Castillo, P	91	5	5	3
LG.Speier, P	8	1	1	0
RT.Adcock, P	17	1	1	1
LT.Saucedo, P	15	0.2	1	0
RM.Festa, P	31	1.1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Crawford, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2J.Rodriguez, CF	2-4	1	0	0
3T.France, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
3J.Kelenic, LF	1-1	0	0	1
4T.Hernandez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5E.Suarez, 3B	0-3	1	0	0
6T.Murphy, C	0-2	1	0	0
6C.Raleigh, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7A. Pollock, DH	1-3	0	0	0
7M.Ford, PH	1-1	1	1	1
8J.Caballero, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8K. Wong, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9D.Moore, LF	1-3	0	0	2
9D.Moore, 1B	1-3	0	0	2