White Sox vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - April 9, 2026

THE BAT X is forecasting 0.28 home runs for Munetaka Murakami. Oddsmakers are implying 0.13 home runs, so I believe there is value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 24% of the time resulting in a 100% ROI with expected value of $99.92 (based on a $100 wager). This play is good down to at least +389. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz

(B365 – wouldn’t go below +150) Anthony Kay’s Fangraphs projections average almost exactly 4.70 and he hasn’t been good, but has had tough matchups against the Jays and in Milwaukee. His velo (95.5) is up a mph from last time he pitched in MLB (2023) with a new sinker (16.1%), resulting in a solid 3.91 Bot ERA and 101 Pitching+ so far. 51.7% of contact on the ground, though we don’t love the 6 SwStr% and > 50 HardHit%. Seth Lugo sharper vs same Milwaukee team and in Atlanta. Much improved 3.49 Bot ERA (best of career), but not so much Pitching+ (92). First double digit barrel rate last year (11.1%) and 12.1% so far in 2026 (four). Massive hole against LHBs last year and they have all nine hits against him this year (.335 wOBA, but .371 xwOBA since 2025. The gap may have been the park knocking down fly balls, but remember that they moved the fences in. All of Lugo’s non-FIP estimators > 5 last season. CWS likely to send up six LHBs against him. KCR just 80 wRC+ v LHP LY and while Marte and Thomas are nice bench bats and still respectable against LHP, they’re not going to lead a revolution. Royals still have all the edges in this game, but they’re mostly small (except defense).

#EV Pinny -125 Circa -120 BO -125