Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, October 6.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Dodgers vs. Phillies and Cubs vs. Brewers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, October 6
Series Moneyline Corner
If you follow me in the Action Network App, our series ticket on the Blue Jays (+130) is in a good position, but I don't see any reason to hedge.
Among currently available series lines, the Blue Jays (projected -597, listed -525 at DraftKings) are the only team of the eight I see with a projectable edge compared to their listed odds, however slight.
The Tigers-Mariners series is essentially a coin flip headed to Detroit, with Tarik Skubal slated to start a potential Game 5 back in Seattle. The Mariners left Bryan Woo off their roster, and we learned that Josh Naylor may go on paternity leave at some point during the ALDS, which caused Seattle's series price to crash from -210 to -170 before Game 1.
While I've been tempted to back the Cubs to win their series against the Brewers, I couldn't justify the price tag before Game 1 (projected +106, listed +105 to +110) and still cannot before Game 2 either (projected +229, listed +220 at DraftKings), despite my personal lean.
I'll favor the Dodgers in every game for the remainder of the NL playoffs, including the remainder of the NLDS against the Phillies. The betting market has the Dodgers priced between -320 (76.2% implied) and -350 (77.8% implied) to win two of the final four potential games against the Phillies and advance to the NLCS for the seventh time in the past ten years.
I don't show value on their series moneyline, but I still show a slight edge on their odds to win the series in five, or 3-2 in the correct score market (projected +449, listed +500 at DraftKings).
Lastly, I would continue to bet the Dodgers to win the NL Pennant (projected from -109 to -148) and/or the World Series (projected from +212 to +132) compared to listed odds as good as +105 (48.8% implied) for the pennant and +260 (27.8% implied) for the World Series.
Dodgers vs. Phillies
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Blake Snell vs. Jesus Luzardo
I projected the Dodgers as -120 favorites for Game 2 in Philadelphia. I thought their opening odds (-118) were fair, compared to my projected line of -118, but I now sit at the midpoint of the betting market (-130/+110) and feel that the line is perfectly balanced.
However, I do show an edge on the Over in this matchup, setting the total at 8.24 runs, after factoring in the weather and umpire. I would bet the Over 7.5 up to 8 (+100).
Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia rates seventh for run scoring (+2%) over the past three seasons, but should see a slight offensive boost on Monday, with seven mph winds blowing straight out.
Moreover, plate umpire Adrian Johnson is one of the more hitter-friendly umpires in my model; his games have a 284-231-32 record (55.1%) in favor of the Over since 2005, generating a 6.7% ROI, and clearing the listed total by an average margin of 0.8 runs per game.
By dollars won (for a consistent $100 bettor), Johnson is the most profitable Over umpire in the Bet Labs database:
The Phillies have a significantly worse defensive lineup against left-handed pitchers compared to right-handed pitchers; their lefty platoon lineup costs them about two-tenths of a run per game in my model. Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp, and Nick Castellanos form a dreadful defensive outfield.
Conversely, their righty platoon lineup can save them nearly a quarter of a run over a full game; Brandon Marsh, Harrison Bader, and Max Kepler can form a well-above-average, if not elite, defensive outfield.
Moreover, they are trading defense for offense with the swap — the Phillies posted an identical wRC+ against lefties (121 wRC+, 5th) as they did against righties (2nd) in September.
Furthermore, the Dodgers are in their superior offensive split (118 wRC+ vs. lefties, 111 vs. righties in September) and their lineup is seemingly peaking in October.
Ultimately, I do prefer the Dodgers' offense; they chase significantly less often (29.5%, 3rd vs. 33.5%, 28th) and don't strike out as much (9th vs. 17th in the second half) as the Phillies, but also hit for more power (2nd vs. 8th in ISO) too.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100| Bet to 8 +100)
Cubs vs. Brewers
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8 -105o / -115u | -130 |
Shota Imanaga vs. Aaron Ashby
The Brewers will utilize Aaron Ashby (career 2.92 xFIP vs. lefties) as an opener on Monday, likely ahead of Quinn Priester (3.62 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, 4.59 botERA).
While Ashby did pitch in relief in Game 1, I could see him turning over the Cubs' lineup at once before exiting; he's recorded as many as 11 outs this season, and I'd expect him to face upwards of 12-to-14 hitters depending upon whether Kyle Tucker is hitting second, third, or fourth for Chicago.
Aaron Ashby, Vicious Breaking Balls. 😤 pic.twitter.com/oiLxtWDimC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 28, 2025
Regardless, I anticipate heavy bullpen usage from both teams, with quick hooks from both managers, given the off-days on Sunday and Tuesday, and the Cubs already trailing in this series.
The Brewers exploded for nine runs over the first two innings in Game 1, before getting shut down over the final six frames. They were all over Matt Boyd — to the point where it seemed like the was tipping pitches — but Chicago proceeded to sacrifice three of thier four long relievers (Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale, and Ben Brown) in the blowout, leaving Colin Rea and five high leverage arms (Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Brad Keller, Andrew Kitteredge, and Daniel Palencia) to work behind Shota Imanaga (4.23 xERA, 4.51 xFIP, 3.81 botERA) in Game 2.
Craig Counsell would gladly deploy any of those arms, which helped form the No. 1 bullpen in xFIP and K-BB% in the second half, in multi-inning stints.
The Brewers bullpen didn't carry as dominant of underlying indicators — ranking closer to 10th on the season and in the second half — but they were in the top three by ERA and pitch modeling metrics (2nd Pitching+, 3rd botERA) for virtually the entire year. They rank as the second-best bullpen in my model, behind the Padres.
These also rank among two of the better defensive teams in my model; Chicago finished third in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and second in Outs Above Average this season, while Milwaukee ranked 11th and fifth, respectively. Blake Perkins (career +11 DRS in Center Field) in Center for Milwaukee is an upgrade over a potentially injured Jackson Chourio (-4 DRS in Center Field in 2025), too.
The Brewers produce a disproportionate amount of their offense on infield grounders, forcing their opponents into an MLB-worst -30 OAA this season. Still, aside from the Blue Jays (the No. 1 defensive team in my model), the Cubs were the only defensive infield to finish above average in DRS at every position, with Nico Hoerner (+17 DRS) ranking as the defensive second baseman.
I project the Game 2 total at 7.16 runs, and would bet Under 8 to 7.5 (-105).
Additionally, I'm interested in the unders for Shota, and Overs for Ashby.
Milwaukee was the No. 1 team at strikeout avoidance against lefties in September, and Shota Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130) and Under 12.5 Outs (-110) are playable to -150 and -140, respectively.
Ashby Over 5.5 Outs (-160) and Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-180) are both juicy, but his hit, walk, and outs lines added together imply that he's likeliest to see eight or nine hitters, which should put him at a projection of around 2.5 strikeouts if he turns over the lineup once.
Still, the Brewers only have two other left-handed relievers – Jared Koenig and Robert Gasser (in addition to Jose Quintana)- on their NLDS roster. If the market thinks that Ashby is going to make it to the end of the Cubs' lineup once, you should anticipate that he turns it over to face at least Michael Busch, and likely Tucker for a second time, too.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 | Bet to 7.5 -105) | Shota Imanaga Under 12.5 Outs (-103 | Play to -125) | Shota Imanaga Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130 | Play to -150) | Aaron Ashby Over 5.5 Outs (-160 | Play to -200) | Aaron Ashby Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-180 | Play to -200)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, October 6
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Sides and Totals
- Cubs / Brewers Under 8 (-109, 1u) at BetRivers; bet to 7.5 (-105)
- Dodgers / Phillies Over 7.5 (+100, 1u) at BetMGM; bet to 8 (+100)
Player Props
- Aaron Ashby Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-180, 0.1u) at Fanatics; bet to -200
- Aaron Ashby Over 5.5 Outs Recorded (-160, 0.1u) at Fanatics; bet to -200
- Shota Imanaga Under 12.5 Outs Recorded (-102, 0.1u) at Fanduel; bet to -125
- Shota Imanaga Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -150
