Hawks vs. 76ers Odds & Betting Predictions - February 20, 2026

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Why do we keep giving the 76ers so much respect? Philadelphia simply cannot be favored in this spot while missing Joel Embiid and Paul George. Not to mention, the 76ers have actually been a worse team at home this season. When playing in Philly, they are just 15-14 straight up compared to 15-10 on the road. Similarly, the Hawks are also better on the road. Atlanta is 16-15 on the road compared to just 10-15 at home. This line confuses me considering how thin this Philadelphia lineup gets without Embiid and George. Our model agrees and has the Hawks winning this one 122.95 to 117.58 for a fair spread of Atlanta -5.37. Sure, this is a double revenge spot for the 76ers after dropping both games this season to the Hawks. However, I think this is more of an ownership narrative than anything. Atlanta has now won the last seven meetings dating back to last season. They simply know how to beat this 76ers team. Now this Hawks roster is even more improved. I really like the direction this team is going. Jalen Johnson is turning into a star, and they did a great job adding guys at the deadline. They added CJ McCollum, Corey Kispert, Buddy Hield, Jock Landale, and Jonathan Kuminga. While Kuminga won’t play in this one, everyone else is good to go. I was high on this team preseason, and I’m even higher on them now. Losing Kristaps Porzingis might seem like it hurts, but Onyeka Okongwu has been the better player all season. The Hawks have looked like a much better team with him on the floor. Meanwhile, I am very low on this 76ers team. They are already without Joel Embiid every other game and now have lost Paul George for the season. If Maxey isn’t on fire, this team can’t really get much going. When Embiid has played, this team is a respectable 19-12. When Embiid is out, they are just 11-12. Shot Quality is especially low on this team, having them ranked 22nd overall in the NBA with the 18th worst offense and 25th worst defense. In home games this season, the 76ers are 28th in effective field goal percentage, third worst in the league. Meanwhile, the Hawks own the 4th best effective field goal percentage on the road. The Hawks love to play in transition, ranking second in transition efficiency and first in offensive spacing and passing. They also play at the second quickest tempo in the league. This is where Philadelphia gets burned, as they aren’t nearly as efficient in transition. Atlanta lives and dies in transition, and Philadelphia simply isn’t capable of stopping or exploiting it. They rank just 24th in transition efficiency. The Hawks have also been the much superior defense in this split. Atlanta is 11th in defensive rating on the road, while the 76ers are 20th in defensive rating at home. The hype of previous seasons and the city of Philadelphia are carrying the respect in the market for this 76ers team. They simply aren’t very good and are getting mispriced almost every game. I’ll disregard the revenge spot and take the undervalued Hawks on the road to get yet another win against Philadelphia.