Heat vs. Kings Odds & Betting Predictions - February 27, 2024

Heat at Kings

3:00 am • NBA TV

Miami Heat

37-45

121

121 - 110

Sacramento Kings

40-42

110

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Heat 37-45	+8	+7.5-109	o224-111	+235
Kings 40-42	u227	-7.5-111	u224-108	-289

Tuesday 3:00 a.m.

February 27, 2024

Golden 1 CenterSacramento

D.Robinson o2.5 3pt M (Live)+899

0.25u

B.Adebayo o3.5 Ast-140

0.71u

K.Murray o13.5 Pts-115

Over in 16/L23 home games, where he averages 18 ppg. Numbers down lately, but that’s because he’s played 11/L14 on the road (where he only averages 12 ppg). Great spot vs MIA who allow a ton of spot up shooting (most pts on second highest frequency) - Keegan crushed this matchup with 33 pts in Miami a few weeks ago. Bad spot for Sabonis and Fox as well.

MIA +7.5-110

MIA +7-111

0.97u

Under 224.5-110

This seems pretty damn low for Kings home game

MIA +7.5-110

MIA +6.5-112

0.89u

@HPBasketball

M.Monk o16.5 Pts-120

Via Jim Turvey

J.Jaquez o23.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-104

0.96u

J.Jaquez o3.5 Ast+146

J.Jaquez o15.5 Pts-120

0.42u

C.Martin o21.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-105

0.71u

MIA +7.5-108

0.93u

MIA +6.5-108

K.Murray o13.5 Pts-125

0.5u

Tailing @JoeDellera x2

D.Sabonis u19.5 Pts-116

$50.00

K.Murray o19.5 Pts+480

1.01u

K.Murray o13.5 Pts-104

1.2u

Keegan Murray has one of the wildest home and road splits in the NBA. On the road he averages just 12.1 points per game while shooting just 42.6% from the field and 28.7% from 3. At home? This spikes to 18.0 points per game on 49.8% shooting including 42.4% from deep. Luckily for the Kings, this is a home game against the Miami Heat. Miami will be without a number of players tonight headlined by Jimmy Butler, but stylistically they have been a strong matchup for Murray due to all of the zone they play and that they allow the third-highest frequency of 3 point attempts. In 3 games against Miami, he’s scored 33, 7, and 22 points with the 33 point effort being the most recent. His points prop is set at 13.5, a number he’s exceeded in 70% of home games this season and even his 20+ prop is worth a shot considering it’s priced at (+480) which has a 17.2% implied odds, yet he has 20+ in 39% of home games (9/23). I like Murray to exceed 13.5 Points tonight.

MIA +7.5-109

2.75u

Featured Insight
The Heat are 23-7 (.767) when scoring 110 or more points this season -- 6th-best in the NBA; the Kings have allowed 117.8 points per game this season -- 9th-worst in the NBA.

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Featured Insight
The Kings have allowed 11.5 second chance points per game this season -- best in the NBA; the Heat have averaged 12.2 second chance points per game this season -- 4th-lowest in the NBA.

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No props found

NBA Public Betting

Kings are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Kings are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Kings are 20-20 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Kings' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 23 of Kings' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Kings	34-44-4	14-24-3	20-20-1	21-27-4	13-17
Heat	39-42-1	22-19	17-23-1	21-24	18-18-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Kings	42-39-1	23-17-1	19-22	25-26-1	17-13
Heat	44-38	25-16	19-22	26-19	18-19

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Kings	40-42	N/A	N/A	31-21	9-21
Heat	37-45	N/A	N/A	26-19	11-26

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Feb 26th	@LAC	W 123-107	+4 W	U 239	SAC +155
Feb 23rd	SAS	W 127-122	-10.5 L	O 243	SAC -520
Feb 15th	@DEN	W 102-98	+5.5 W	U 228.5	SAC +175
Feb 14th	@PHX	L 125-130	+4.5 L	O 245	PHX +154
Feb 11th	@OKC	L 113-127	+3.5 L	U 240	OKC +130