Pistons vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - October 28, 2024

3.45% ev

Duren only has a DD in 1/3 games this season but the two misses were in horrible MU for C's to grab rebounds (IND and BOS). Duren has scored 10+ PTS in 2/3 games this season but I think this comes down to his rebounds. Duren had a DD in 4/4 games vs. MIA last season and 5/5 career games vs. Bam when playing 20+ MIN. Duren's AVG 18.3 REB chances this season and AVG 18.7 LS, so he's due for some positive regression in his REB chance%. In four games vs. MIA last season, Duren AVG 20.0 RC and 22.5 in two games w/o Ausar. Duren had a DD in 10/12 games w/o Ausar last season and AVG 19.4 REB chances. When Duren has had 17+ RC in a game, he's grabbed 10+ REB in 38/40 games.. MIA switch everything defensively, especially Bam on PnR since he's capable of defending 1-5 and it was apparent watching the last game. Cade runs the 8th most PnR actions in the league, so Duren should have cross-matches down low and a huge advantage on the offensive glass. MIA are also allowing the 5th most PnR PPP to the roller because they switch everything

3% ev

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Detroit's young roster, led by Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, struggles with scoring consistency, especially in fourth quarters, contributing to a winless start. Their slow pace hints at low-scoring games. Miami, also playing at a controlled pace, relies heavily on Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, as Bam Adebayo faces early scoring challenges. Both teams’ low offensive rebounding ranks limit second-chance points, indicating likely lower game totals.

He’s 0/4 so far from deep, but he’s taken 2 in each game. Finished last season making 1 in 11/17, and took 13 in 81 preseason minutes. It’s clearly something that’s now a part of his game, and this should be a solid spot for it. The Pistons have employed a pretty deep drop this season to keep Duren closer to the bucket for rim protection, which is a staple of JB Bickerstaff (the Cavs allowed 10 threes attempted by centers per game last season, the 2nd most in the NBA - positional value being loosely defined here, but still, it makes the point). Myles Turner took 8 against them, Mobley took 3 (Allen never shoots threes), and Horford took 8 - all easily their highest volume of the season.

3.27% ev

There’s some instances where he’ll be spaced more behind the three, … it’s all on us, myself, Terry, and everybody, to recognize we can get the ball to him in a place that puts pressure on the defense.” - Erik Spoesltra Everyone’s sour about this prop but I’m not. Purposely waited the first two games vs. ORL and CHA where it wasn’t the best matchup, yet Adebayo still attempted a combined four shots. As shown in the picture, this is the spot to attack this prop vs. the Pistons, where he had a game winner doing it to last season. The defense is organized around pressuring the ball handler with a backup defender in PnR, limiting drives with Duren in drop coverage, which creates wide open leak-out pick and pops to the open center. We saw this play out in the Pistons last two matchup with big men Myles Turner and Al Horford, BOTH taking eight attempts from downtown. I have Adebayo taking 2-4 shots tonight, and with odds in the plus here, I’ll gladly take a chance he hits his first 3-pointer tonight where I’ll be live to see in person! #PlayerProps

Bet365

10+ in both games - has been aggressive in terms of getting his shot up, which we saw last season (over in 19/29 last season with just 20+ minutes). Gets a nice spot vs the Pistons who have been a bit leaky against spot up shooters to start the season.