Magic vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - October 23, 2024

NBA system

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I feel like Caruso rn lol, but THIS LINE IS TOO LOW. Jaquez is coming off of an amazing year for the Heat and now his role this year will be coming off the bench as the teams 6th man. Facing the Magic tonight on paper is a bad matchup with how good the Magic were on defense last season, but Jaquez was still able to hit this line in 3/3 games vs ORL last season with 14,29,20. However, coming off the bench will be a huge plus for him on this line as the Heats 2nd unit is good and has a lot of guys that aren't ball dominant like Love, Robinson, Burks, which should give more scoring opportunity to Jaquez. Herro will be in there as well and will attribute to his assists as well, so another plus. This should be the LOWEST we see this line all year because he hit this line in 78% of games last year and when he played at least 27 minutes, which he is projected to play tonight, he hit this line in 88% of games last year. The Heat are at home tonight as well and he hit this line in 19/22 at home last year. He had a great preseason hitting this line in 3/3 games with 12,26,12. This is probably my POTD.

Adebayo has spent the offseason focused on expanding his range. The early results have been positive. Adebayo went 5-for-13 from beyond the arc in 4 preseason games. Accuracy isn't a question, as Adebayo is a career 35.1% 3-pointer shooter. It comes down to the attempts. Adebayo averaged a career-high in 3-point attempts last season, but that number was just 0.6. His 3.3 attempts per game in the preseason is encouraging, especially considering he's not playing a normal allotment of minutes. Adebayo getting up three 3-pointers per game would be huge, and his preseason pace would put him closer to 5 attempts in his typical role (33-34 minutes).

Buckets pod from @bryanfonsecany

Miami defense will strap a PG-less Magic team

Everyone loves the magic, undervaluing heat imo

DK

6.12% ev

It’s about Bam time @TurveyBets @GDAWG5000

3PT 🪜🪜🪜 I know my guy @TurveyBets @wheatonbrando like it.

Franz under in 20/36 away games last season with Paolo (second straight season his scoring and shooting declined in away games), and was under in 16/24 games against teams in the top 10 of defense vs PnR ball handlers (MIA was #1). He looked very flat in preseason (8/27 shooting, 0/7 from three, more turnovers than assists).