Spurs vs. Timberwolves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 10, 2026

Home game for the Wolves as they look to tie the series 2-2. Randle drove the ball 19 times in Game 3 despite foul trouble, well above his 12.0 series average, and he generated 33 passes and 10 field goal attempts for his teammates going 0-7 on potential. The conversion was the problem, not the volume. His teammates went 0 of 10 on shots created off his passes, including 0/4 from McDaniels, who's shooting 22 percent on the series. Finch said it himself postgame: "That's not on him. That's on us. We gotta make some shots for him." Across three games, Randle's pass recipients have shot 20 percent on the 30 FGAs he's created. That's well below league norms, and a regression candidate, especially with McDaniels' career FG sitting at 47 percent and Edwards spotting up off Randle drives more in Game 4. Ayo is now in the rotation, more offense and McDaniels' shooting has to regress at some point, and he's the #1 recipient of Randle passes. Shannon's been the most efficient finisher on Randle passes at 33 percent, and Finch admitted he will play him more. If even two of these levers fire and pass conversion climbs to 25 percent, Randle clears 4 assists. The volume is already there. The bet is essentially betting on teammate shooting regression to mean. #PlayerProps @everyone

I couldn’t be any colder if I tried, tread lightly.

Join Discord for earlier access: https://discord.gg/HjKxYKdSUy San Antonio owns the current matchup swing after beating Minnesota 133-95 and 115-108 in the last two meetings. The season margin gap is 4.9 points before adding recent form, with the Spurs at +8.3 and Minnesota at +3.4. No fresh injury changes the handicap, so I am laying the number with the side already up 2-1.

#EV 2.09%

CLE G3, SAS G4

Wemby went crazy in Game 3 with a 39 point performance. The biggest swing was he dominated on the interior with the change from Minnesota. The Wolves realized that they need to run their small Ball lineup more against Wemby and use Rudy more in the Kornet minutes instead. This opens up the Wolves' offense at the cost of interior defense, and Wemby took advantage. This is something I still expect to continue, primarily because the offensive minutes with Rudy matching Wemby have been abysmal. Wemby stopped just launching from 3 and worked the ball in. That's why he had 12 FTA as opposed to 2 and 3 in Games 1 and 2. Great spot here for Wemby considering these adjustments.

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#EV 3.15% Pinny -130