Saints vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - November 26, 2023

Saints at Falcons

6:00 pm • FOX

New Orleans Saints

5-9

15 - 24

Atlanta Falcons

7-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Saints 5-9	-2	-1.5-111	o41.5-112	-126
Falcons 7-7	u41.5	+1.5-109	u41.5-110	+108

Sunday 6:00 p.m.

November 26, 2023

Mercedes-Benz StadiumAtlanta

T.Hill Anytime TD Scorer+210

ATL +2-112

0.89u

Under 42-110

0.91u

ATL +1.5-114

$50.00

B.Robinson 2+ TDs+1000

2.5u

@charliedisturco

R.Shaheed Anytime TD Scorer+310

@GDAWG5000

ATL +2-110

0.45u

NO -2-110

B.Robinson Anytime TD Scorer+135

1.5u

NO -1.5-110

0.55u

ATL +2-109

NO -125

A.Kamara o6.5 Recs+360

0.25u

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-12-odds-picks-preview

A.Kamara o9.5 Recs+1550

0.25u

R.Shaheed Anytime TD Scorer+310

Bet at FanDuel.

A.Kamara o35.5 Rec Yds-120

ATL +1-110

Stuckey 2

ATL +1-115

0.57u

NO -102

Available at FanDuel. Reports Monday were that Derek Carr had yet to clear concussion protocol. But he still needs to pass certain practice barriers to clear, so I'd expect him to have plenty of time to get there by game time. The team will likely be without both Marshon Lattimore and Michael Thomas, but even accounting for those, my model has the Saints favored by 1.7 points here. They're the 14th-ranked team by my model when you ignore a prior versus the Falcons in 24th, and the prior also favors the Saints. The Falcons just haven't been able to move the ball on early downs -- whether via the pass or the rush -- despite an easy schedule thus far. The Saints' defense has also benefited from an easy schedule, but even when you account for that, they rank second in late-down success rate allowed, trailing just the Cleveland Browns. This number could move if we get bad news on Carr, but I'm willing to risk that given there's a pretty big gap between my model and the market right now.

NO -0.5-107

Under 42.5-108

0.93u

Featured Insight
The Falcons have scored 18.9 points per game this season -- ninth-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed 19.8 PPG this season -- eighth-best in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Falcons are averaging 4.6 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field since Week 8 -- tied for eighth-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed 5.2 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left to RBs since Week 8 -- ninth-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Falcons are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Falcons are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Falcons are 3-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Falcons' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Falcons' 7 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Falcons	5-9	2-5	3-4	4-5	1-4
Saints	6-8	4-4	2-4	1-3	5-5

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Falcons	5-9	2-5	3-4	4-5	1-4
Saints	7-7	4-4	3-3	2-2	5-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Falcons	7-7	N/A	N/A	6-3	1-4
Saints	5-9	N/A	N/A	2-2	3-7

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Nov 12th	@ARI	L 23-25	-2 L	O 43.5	ARI -125
Nov 5th	MIN	L 28-31	-3.5 L	O 38.5	MIN -194
Oct 29th	@TEN	L 23-28	-2.5 L	O 35.5	TEN -130
Oct 22nd	@TB	W 16-13	+3 W	U 37.5	ATL +124
Oct 15th	WAS	L 16-24	-2 L	U 41.5	WAS -125

Derek Carr
QB
Carr is out with hand
Out

Tanoh Kpassagnon
DE
Kpassagnon is questionable with achilles
Questionable
Alvin Kamara
RB
Kamara is doubtful with groin
Doubtful
Taysom Hill
TE
Hill is out with knee
Out
J.T. Gray
DB
Gray is questionable with back
Questionable
Will Harris
CB
Harris is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Shane Lemieux
G
Lemieux is questionable with knee
Questionable
Chris Olave
WR
Olave is out with concussion
Out
D'Marco Jackson
LB
Jackson is out with ankle
Out
John Ridgeway
DT
Ridgeway is questionable with oblique
Questionable
Nephi Sewell
LB
Sewell is questionable with knee
Questionable
Rashid Shaheed
WR
Shaheed is out with knee
Out
Nick Saldiveri
OL
Saldiveri is out with knee
Out
Kool-Aid McKinstry
DB
McKinstry is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Bub Means
WR
Means is out with ankle
Out
Rico Payton
CB
Payton is questionable with back
Questionable

Mike Hughes
CB
Hughes is questionable with neck
Questionable
James Smith-Williams
DE
Smith-Williams is out with tibia
Out
Ta'Quon Graham
DE
Graham is out with pectoral
Out
Troy Andersen
LB
Andersen is out with knee
Out
Ruke Orhorhoro
DT
Orhorhoro is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Jase McClellan
RB
McClellan is out with knee
Out
Casey Washington
WR
Washington is out with concussion
Out

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Saints

Total

Falcons

444

Total Yards

396

Total Plays

6.6

Yards Per Play

6.4

Saints

Passing

Falcons

304

YDS

168

24/38

Comps/Atts

13/21

7.59

YPA

0/1

TDs/INTs

1/2

1/8

Sacks/Yards

0/0

Saints

Rushing

Falcons

148

Rush Yards

228

Attempts

5.286

YPC

5.561

TDs

Saints

Turnovers

Falcons

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Saints

Efficiency

Falcons

0/5 0%

Redzone

1/2 50%

6/14 0%

3rd Down

4/8 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

0/1 0%

Saints

First Downs

Falcons

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Saints

Misc

Falcons

6/50

Penalties/Yards

5/35

31:34

Possession

28:26

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MatchupOverUnder
Saints 5-9	o21.5-107	u21.5-110
Falcons 7-7	o20.5-104	u20.5-118

Saints vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - November 26, 2023

Saints at Falcons

New Orleans Saints

Atlanta Falcons

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Saints

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Falcons

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