Saints vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

Saints at Falcons

5:00 pm • FOX

New Orleans Saints

5-12

24 - 26

Atlanta Falcons

8-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Saints 5-12	+4.5	+3-111	o42.5-111	+130
Falcons 8-9	u44.5	-3-108	u42.5-109	-150

Sunday 5:00 p.m.

September 29, 2024

Mercedes-Benz StadiumAtlanta

ATL +3.5 (Live)-130

A.Kamara Anytime TD Scorer Yes+115

1.15u

NO +2.5-105

0.95u

- Saints scored on 61% of drives ranking 2nd/32 in the NFL - Falcons allowed a score on 52% of drives ranking 31st/32 in the NFL - Saints last 8 games vs an NFC Team: 6-2 ATS - Falcons last 12 games vs an NFC Team: 3-9 ATS - Saints need to keep this one close because they have to head to Arrowhead next week in a primetime matchup vs Mahomes

Under 43-120

Under 42.5-110

1.1u

NO +125

#ProSystem ... road conference dogs low total Overall: 352-416-2,46% (ROI:21%) Season:3-3-0,50% (ROI:48%) ML … short spread road dog low total Overall: 126-111-0,53% (ROI:13%) Season:0-2-0,0% (ROI:-100%)

ATL o21.5 Team Total-110

0.91u

Saints haven’t allowed 20+ all season

ATL -2.5-115

1.15u

Under 41.5-111

@ChrisRaybon

NO +3-117

K.Pitts Anytime TD Scorer Yes+237

ATL -2.5-105

B.Robinson o75.5 Rush Yds-115

1.73u

D.London o58.5 Rec Yds-110

🔬Drake London is Puka…… not literally but his usage is becoming very similar to how the same exact offensive coordinator used Puka last season. 🔬Londons 4 games (in a worse offense) vs NO - 74,70,91, 41 (the 41 was in a last game of the season with the falcons playing for nothing and losing 48-17) 🔬London is leading the falcons in targets, catches and touchdowns and I believe as Kirk gets healthier and this offense start to mold, we’ll see this to be a line to low for London as the season progresses

ATL -2.5-114

1.14u

Tailing @mbiever

B.Robinson Anytime TD Scorer Yes-125

1.25u

B.Robinson o99.5 Rush + Rec Yds-114

1.14u

Under 41.5-110

0.5u

Caesars

ATL -2.5-120

1.2u

ATL -3+100

D.Mooney o3.5 Recs-108

1.08u

ATL -2.5-111

3.33u

D.Mooney o39.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115

0.87u

MGM

NO +3-115

0.5u

Over 41-110

0.91u

#ProSystem . both teams went under bet over Overall: 107-62-0,63% (ROI:23%) Season:1-2-0,33% (ROI:-36%)

D.Carr o1.5 Rush Yds-105

1.9u

All Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found in the MoneylineSharps Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/zkcR4EnvbW

ATL -2.5-125

0.8u

K.Cousins o214.5 Pass Yds-110

ATL -2-110

1.1u

Stuckey 2

ATL -1.5-108

0.93u

PICKEM

ATL -2-112

0.5u

NO +1.5-110

1.1u

Model makes this saints -5.91

NO +110

Saints' injury report could be gross this week, but the Falcons are also expected to be without two starting offensive linemen. Saints' defense has played better thus far, and they were a couple Rashid Shaheed fingertips from having another good showing Sunday. Have the Saints favored by 2.1 here.

Featured Insight
The Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 38.0% of plays against motion since the 2023 season -- T-best in NFL; the Falcons have been successful on 38.0% of plays they have run with motion since the 2023 season -- T-5th-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
Falcons TEs have 8 receiving touchdowns since the 2023 season -- T-7th-most in NFL; the Saints have allowed 8 receiving touchdowns to TEs since the 2023 season -- T-3rd-most in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Falcons are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Falcons are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Falcons are 3-5 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Falcons' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Falcons' 9 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Falcons	6-11	3-6	3-5	5-6	1-5
Saints	7-10	4-5	3-5	1-3	6-7

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Falcons	7-10	3-6	4-4	5-6	2-4
Saints	8-9	4-5	4-4	2-2	6-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Falcons	8-9	N/A	N/A	7-4	1-5
Saints	5-12	N/A	N/A	2-2	3-10

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 23rd	KC	L 17-22	+3 L	U 47	KC +145
Sep 17th	@PHI	W 22-21	+5.5 W	U 46.5	ATL +212
Sep 8th	PIT	L 10-18	-4 L	U 43	PIT -195
Aug 23rd	JAC	L 0-31	+8 L	U 35	JAC +320
Aug 17th	@BAL	L 12-13	+2.5 W	U 34	BAL +124

Derek Carr
QB
Carr is out with hand
Out

Tanoh Kpassagnon
DE
Kpassagnon is questionable with achilles
Questionable
Alvin Kamara
RB
Kamara is doubtful with groin
Doubtful
Taysom Hill
TE
Hill is out with knee
Out
Nathan Shepherd
DT
Shepherd is questionable with eye
Questionable
J.T. Gray
DB
Gray is questionable with back
Questionable
Will Harris
CB
Harris is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
Erik McCoy
C
McCoy is out with elbow
Out
Lucas Patrick
OL
Patrick is out with knee
Out
Willie Gay
LB
Gay is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Shane Lemieux
G
Lemieux is questionable with knee
Questionable
Payton Turner
DE
Turner is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Pete Werner
LB
Werner is out with concussion
Out
Chris Olave
WR
Olave is out with concussion
Out
D'Marco Jackson
LB
Jackson is out with ankle
Out
John Ridgeway
DT
Ridgeway is questionable with oblique
Questionable
Nephi Sewell
LB
Sewell is questionable with knee
Questionable
Rashid Shaheed
WR
Shaheed is out with knee
Out
Kendre Miller
RB
Miller is doubtful with concussion
Doubtful
Nick Saldiveri
OL
Saldiveri is out with knee
Out
Bub Means
WR
Means is out with ankle
Out
Rico Payton
CB
Payton is questionable with back
Questionable

Antonio Hamilton
CB
Hamilton is out with quad
Out
Mike Hughes
CB
Hughes is questionable with neck
Questionable
Darnell Mooney
WR
Mooney is out with shoulder
Out
James Smith-Williams
DE
Smith-Williams is out with tibia
Out
Ta'Quon Graham
DE
Graham is out with pectoral
Out
Troy Andersen
LB
Andersen is out with knee
Out
Brandon Dorlus
DE
Dorlus is questionable with abdomen
Questionable
JD Bertrand
LB
Bertrand is questionable with eye
Questionable
Jase McClellan
RB
McClellan is out with knee
Out

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Saints

Total

Falcons

366

Total Yards

315

Total Plays

5.2

Yards Per Play

6.2

Saints

Passing

Falcons

239

YDS

238

28/36

Comps/Atts

21/35

6.351

YPA

6.306

0/1

TDs/INTs

0/1

1/4

Sacks/Yards

1/11

Saints

Rushing

Falcons

131

Rush Yards

Attempts

3.97

YPC

5.867

TDs

Saints

Turnovers

Falcons

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Saints

Efficiency

Falcons

3/4 75%

Redzone

0/1 0%

7/13 0%

3rd Down

4/11 0%

1/2 0%

4th Down

0/0 0%

Saints

First Downs

Falcons

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Saints

Misc

Falcons

6/60

Penalties/Yards

9/76

35:42

Possession

24:18

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MatchupOverUnder
Saints 5-12	o20.5+105	u20.5-125
Falcons 8-9	o22.5-110	u22.5-112

Saints vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

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