Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - August 29, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Both starting pitchers, Bowden Francis and Kutter Crawford, have shown an ability to limit damage supported by their peripherals. Francis has an xBA of .231 and a WHIP of 1.07-all proving he can keep hitters off base to not allow big innings. His fastball run value off high extension is in the 78th percentile, making his pitches highly deceptive in their delivery, which aids in weaker contact. Furthermore, Francis' 37.2% Hard Hit Percentage would suggest that he doesn't yield much strong contact, which corroborates the expectation of low offense from the Red Sox. On the other side, Kutter Crawford can be similarly effective at keeping runs at a premium. His WHIP of 1.09, shows his aptitude for taming the opposing lineups and limiting their scoring chances. The ability of Crawford to force weak contact is further emphasized through his low Barrel Rate, being in the 21st percentile, while strong performance in the Hard Hit Percentage, at a rank of 65th percentile, limits extra-base hit possibilities. That he is in the 89th percentile in Chase Rate highlights that he can fool hitters to take some pitches out of the zone, often inducing strikeouts and decreasing the solid contact off him. The Blue Jays offense has been tepid, ranking 22nd in MLB with just 4.2 runs per game, a batting average of .239 - middling at best. That relative lack of firepower aligns well with the strengths of both starters. That Toronto lineup isn't consistent with run production is further evidenced by their paltry 0.9 HR/9 rate, which of course suggests that they don't rely all that much on the home run to score runs. The way Francis can stifle hard contact and baserunners should make life difficult on the Red Sox as well. With both teams bringing somewhat decent bullpens into this game - Toronto's relief ERA coming in at 3.98, the game should feature limited scoring opportunities, particularly later in the game. Putting it all together, strong starting pitching, offenses that are less than exciting, and solid bullpen performances should result in a game where runs might be a little hard to find, making the Under 8.5 the best play.

Both of these bats are trending in the wrong direction ranking right behind each other in BA in the L7 days at 22nd & 23rd. K. Crawford is pitching for BOS & hasn’t allowed a first inning run in his L3 starts (ARI, BAL, TEX) all vs better bats. He’s also only allowing a .273 OBP to lefties & a .287 OBP to righties. B. Francis is pitching for TOR & has been phenomenal since transitioning from relief to starter.. He’s allowed only 9 hits in 27.1 IP in Aug… He’s also allowing only a .198 BA to lefties & BOS’s first 4 hitters will all be from that side. 6 simple outs is all we need from two good pitchers vs failing bats.

Johnny

Bet to -117