Cubs vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - April 4, 2023

Cubs at Reds

10:40 pm • BSOH

Chicago Cubs

1-0

12 - 5

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L. Cessa			9.00	1-4
H.Wesneski			4.63	3-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 1-0	-1.5+120	o9.5+100	-130
Reds 0-0	+1.5-145	u9.5-120	+110

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

April 04, 2023

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

T.Stephenson o0.5 HR+700

0.2u

Stephenson has a lot of untapped power with his 6’4” 225 frame and I think this is a good time to buy in at this price. He hasn’t been a big fly ball hitter but with a 16.7 launch angle on the young season I think he is trying to put a bit more lift on the ball and the home runs will eventually come. Wesneski has allowed a fairly high fly ball rate (41.4%) in limited MLB action. Projecting this closer to +420 so I love the price we are getting here

CIN +118

0.5u

L.Cessa u5.5 Hits Allowed-115

DK: Cessa only threw 6 innings in spring and 2 at the WBC. The Reds had him throw 5 innings in an exhibition game last week due to worries about his lack of usage heading into the season. They could limit him to 4-5 innings today and he isn’t a lock to stay in the rotation. He’s allowed a .277 BABIP w/ a shift compared to .269 BABIP w/o a shift so the new rules may not impact him much. Projecting this closer to 4.9 with a 61% chance of staying under 5.5

CIN +110

CHC -0.5 (F5)-102

CIN o4.5+110

1.1u

H.Wesneski o4.5 Ks-120

0.25u

Under 9-107

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The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Reds were just 27-31 (.466) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Nico Hoerner batted .299 on breaking pitches last season -- fourth best in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Luis Cessa threw his slider 39% of the time last season -- seventh highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total SL-- 95th Percentile.

The last hit on a Luis Cessa fastball was September 28th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 20 in ABs ending on his fastball. -- this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 47-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Reds' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 3rd	CHC	W 7-6	+1.5 W	O 9	CIN +100
Apr 2nd	PIT	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 9	CIN -130
Apr 1st	PIT	W 6-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	CIN -148
Mar 30th	PIT	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	PIT -145
Mar 26th	@COL	W 7-5	-	-	-

Ben Brown
P
Brown is out with neck
Out

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Wesneski, P	87	4.2	4	3
RM.Rucker, P	8	0.1	0	0
RA.Alzolay, P	44	2.2	5	2
RB. Boxberger, P	6	0.1	0	0
RJ.Merryweather, P	10	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1N.Hoerner, 2B	3-6	3	0
2D.Swanson, SS	0-3	2	0
3I.Happ, LF	3-4	2	1
4C.Bellinger, CF	3-5	1	1
5T. Mancini, DH	1-5	2	3
6P.Wisdom, 3B	3-5	2	3
7E. Hosmer, 1B	2-5	0	2
8Y.Gomes, C	0-5	0	0
9M.Mastrobuoni, RF	1-5	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL. Cessa, P	83	5.1	2	2
RI.Gibaut, P	8	0.2	2	0
RB.Farmer, P	9	0	0	3
LR. Sanmartin, P	13	0	0	1
RJ.Kuhnel, P	37	2	0	3
RF.Cruz, P	19	1	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	2-4	2	0	0
2T.Friedl, CF	2-2	1	1	1
2S.Fairchild, PH	1-1	1	1	2
2S.Fairchild, CF	1-1	1	1	2
3J.Fraley, DH	1-4	0	0	1
4T.Stephenson, C	1-4	0	0	0
5J.Vosler, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
6W. Myers, RF	1-2	0	0	0
7S.Steer, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
8K.Newman, SS	0-4	0	0	0
9W.Benson, LF	0-4	0	0	0