Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - April 22, 2024

Diamondbacks at Cardinals

11:45 pm • ARID

Arizona Diamondbacks

34-31

3 - 5

St. Louis Cardinals

35-28

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 34-31	-1.5+154	o8.5-120	-105
Cardinals 35-28	+1.5-185	u8.5+100	-115

Monday 11:45 p.m.

April 22, 2024

Busch StadiumSt. Louis

STL -112

0.89u

... home team after shutout Overall: 273-203-1,57% (ROI:21%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

ARI -105

1.05u

Over 8.5-120

0.55u

ARI -105

DraftKings 5:58.

B.Pfaadt o5.5 Ks+140

0.5u

Pfaadt a bit above average K% for starting pitchers. STL right around league average against RHP. Pfaadt has faced 25.3 batters per start and beaten this number in 3 of 4. No reason it should be +140 (DK).

ARI -105

1.05u

ARI -110

B.Pfaadt u5.5 Ks-130

ARI -115

$1.15

B.Pfaadt u5.5 Ks-120

0.42u

Ballpark pal projects 4.32 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -156 giving value to this number

B.Pfaadt u5.5 Ks-115

0.87u

ARI -115 (F5)

L.Lynn u5.5 Ks-145

1.1u

ARI -110 (F5)

Pfaadt estimators more than half a run better with far better pitch modeling metrics than Lynn. STL 89/83/63 wRC+ Hm/vRHP/L7days, ARI 96/92(but 7.5 K-BB%)/99.

ARI +105

0.75u

Bet to -110. Reduce risk past -101

ARI -105 (F5)

0.75u

Bet to -120. Reduce risk past -110

Featured Insight
Diamondbacks right-handed hitters have struck out just 18% against LHP since last season -- third lowest in MLB. Cardinals have a strikeout rate of just 20% vs right-handed batters since last season -- second lowest in MLB.

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The Cardinals are just 6-77 (.072) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.

Eugenio Suarez has an OPS of just .705 since last season -- 15th worst in MLB-- 11th Percentile. JoJo Romero has allowed an OPS of just .534 (186 PAs) since last season -- seventh best among qualified RPs-- 96th Percentile.

Eugenio Suarez has struck out in 30% of PA's since last season -- seventh highest in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Ryan Helsley has a strikeout rate of 34% since last season -- 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Lance Lynn has thrown fastballs 57% of the time (200/348) this season -- 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% -- 90th Percentile.

Lance Lynn has allowed a slugging percentage of just .108 (4 Total Bases / 37 ABs) when ahead in the count this season -- 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .283 -- 94th Percentile.

67% of Brandon Pfaadt's strikeouts were looking -- highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 27% -- 100th Percentile.

Brandon Pfaadt did not walk any of the 27 batters that he faced -- tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 8% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Cardinals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cardinals are 17-11 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cardinals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 17 of Cardinals' 35 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cardinals	38-25	21-14	17-11	7-4	31-20
Diamondbacks	39-26	21-14	18-12	15-13	23-13

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cardinals	27-32-4	17-16-2	10-16-2	4-6-1	22-26-3
Diamondbacks	30-32-3	14-20-1	16-12-2	11-16-1	18-16-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cardinals	35-28	19-16	16-12	8-3	27-24
Diamondbacks	34-31	21-14	13-17	18-10	15-21

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 21st	MIL	L 0-2	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIL -166
Apr 20th	MIL	L 5-12	-1.5 L	O 8	MIL -140
Apr 20th	MIL	L 1-2	+1.5 W	U 7	MIL +102
Apr 17th	@ATH	L 3-6	-1.5 L	O 8	ATH -130
Apr 17th	@ATH	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8	STL -143

Corbin Burnes
SP
Burnes is out with elbow
Out
Blake Walston
SP
Walston is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Locklear
1B
Locklear is out with elbow
Out

Cristian Mena
SP
Mena is doubtful with shoulder
Doubtful

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Pfaadt, P	80	5.1	4	2
RS.McGough, P	23	1.1	0	1
LJ.Mantiply, P	3	0.1	0	0
RR.Thompson, P	12	1	1	1
LK.Nelson, P	1	0	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1K.Marte, 2B	1-3	0	1
2C.Carroll, CF	1-5	0	0
3L.Gurriel, LF	1-5	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	1	0
5J.Pederson, DH	2-3	1	0
6E.Suarez, 3B	3-4	1	2
7G.Moreno, C	0-3	0	0
8J.McCarthy, RF	1-3	0	0
9K.Newman, SS	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Lynn, P	94	5	7	3
RR.Fernandez, P	9	1	2	0
RA.Kittredge, P	16	1.1	1	0
LJ.Romero, P	7	0.2	0	0
RR.Helsley, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Donovan, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
1B.Donovan, LF	0-3	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, DH	0-4	0	0	0
3L.Nootbaar, RF	1-4	0	0	2
4N.Arenado, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
5P.Goldschmidt, 1B	2-4	2	1	1
6A.Burleson, LF	1-3	0	0	0
6N.Gorman, 2B	1-1	1	1	2
7I.Herrera, C	0-3	0	0	0
8M.Winn, SS	1-2	1	0	0
9M.Siani, CF	0-1	1	0	0