Mariners vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - April 17, 2026

Mariners at Padres

12:40 am • MLB Network

Seattle Mariners

8-11

2 - 5

San Diego Padres

12-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
W.Buehler			4.97	0-1
L.Castillo			6.92	0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mariners 8-11	+1.5	-1.5+138	o8.5-103	-122
Padres 12-6	u8.5	+1.5-165	u8.5-113	+102

Friday 12:40 a.m.

April 17, 2026

Petco ParkSan Diego

Under 10.5 (Live)-115

SEA -1.5+135

📚Onyx

C.Young u0.5 Hits+113

0.75u

SD +106

1.06u

SD +106

1.06u

R.Arozarena o0.5 SB+400

0.15u

Out of 189 qualified pitchers, Buehler is allowing the 12th highest lead at the start of his delivery and the 16th highest SB attempt rate per opportunity. That’s a great setup for someone like Arozarena to take advantage. I’m projecting this closer to +330

L.Castillo u1.5 BB-115

0.58u

Castillo has historically walked right-handed hitters at a 3.5% lower rate, and the Padres are rolling out a righty-heavy lineup with 6 RHBs, which subtly lowers his expected walk rate. Sheets and Cronenworth are his biggest walk risks, but even there it’s not ideal for the over. I only have about a 50/50 shot he faces Sheets a third time, and a very low chance he sees Cronenworth a 3rd time with him hitting 9th. He’s also been getting ahead in the count at a very high rate this year, and the Padres have the 3rd highest swing rate, which should further limit free passes. I’m projecting this closer to -140 and really like the underlying setup.

SEA -120

SD +105

1.05u

SEA -120

C.Raleigh o0.5 HR+272

0.1u

F.Tatis o1.5 Total Bases+104

$1.00

W.Buehler o4.5 Hits Allowed-110

0.5u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-108

1.08u

Good to -115 (DK)

L.Raley o0.5 HR+600

0.5u

W.Buehler u15.5 Outs-140

0.5u

L.Castillo o16.5 Outs-103

0.52u

X.Bogaerts o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+100

Over 8-110

0.55u

Bet to -120

SD +100 (F5)

0.5u

(FD) Castillo got smoked by a nearly entirely RH LU at home last time out after pitching poorly in LA (AL) his previous time out. He’s allowed six barrels to Buehler’s two. They may both be toast, but the Padres have a comparable offense, better defense and base running with possibly the best bullpen in the league anchored by a game shortener. (Wouldn’t play much higher) - Just caught an error. Meant for this to be full game. May have been able to tell by my mention of bullpens, but will leave it as it is and suffer the consequences.

Kev's Pick for Mariners-Padres
Kevork Mahserejian•
Apr 16, 2026 UTC
Zerillo's Opening Pitch for Thursday
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 16, 2026 UTC
Grant's 7 Home Run Bets for Thursday
Grant Neiffer•
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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 4-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 6 of Padres' 12 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	13-5	9-3	4-2	8-1	5-4
Mariners	7-12	6-5	1-7	6-10	1-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	9-8-1	6-5-1	3-3	4-4-1	5-4
Mariners	9-10	7-4	2-6	9-7	0-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	12-6	8-4	4-2	7-2	5-4
Mariners	8-11	7-4	1-7	7-9	1-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 16th	SEA	W 7-6	-	O 8	SD -109
Apr 15th	SEA	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 7	SD +100
Apr 12th	COL	W 7-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	SD -225
Apr 12th	COL	W 9-5	-1.5 W	O 8.5	SD -170
Apr 11th	COL	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 8	SD -174

Miles Mastrobuoni
3B
Mastrobuoni is out with calf
Out
Bryce Miller
SP
Miller is out with oblique
Out

Joe Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out with elbow
Out
Griffin Canning
SP
Canning is out with achilles
Out
Matt Waldron
SP
Waldron is out with lower body
Out
Will Wagner
3B
Wagner is out with oblique
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Castillo, P	98	5.1	3	1
RC.Wilcox, P	21	1.2	3	1
RC.Criswell, P	16	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1B.Donovan, 3B	2-3	1	0
2C.Raleigh, C	2-4	0	1
3J.Rodriguez, CF	1-3	0	1
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-4	0	0
5R.Arozarena, LF	1-3	0	0
6L.Raley, RF	0-2	0	0
6C.Joe, PH	0-2	0	0
6C.Joe, RF	0-2	0	0
7J.Crawford, SS	0-4	0	0
8D.Canzone, DH	0-2	0	0
8M.Garver, PH	0-2	0	0
8M.Garver, DH	0-2	0	0
9C.Young, 2B	1-4	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RW.Buehler, P	88	5	7	2
RB.Rodriguez, P	9	0.1	0	0
LA.Morejon, P	17	1.2	2	0
RJ.Adam, P	16	1	0	0
RM.Miller, P	14	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1R.Laureano, LF	1-4	0	1
2F.Tatis, RF	1-2	1	2
3J.Merrill, CF	1-4	0	0
4M.Machado, 3B	2-4	0	1
5X.Bogaerts, SS	0-4	0	0
6G.Sheets, 1B	1-3	1	0
7M.Andujar, DH	2-4	1	0
8L.Campusano, C	1-4	1	1
9J.Cronenworth, 2B	1-4	1	0