Mariners vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - April 17, 2026
Mariners at Padres
12:40 am • MLB NetworkStarting Pitchers
| pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  | 3.96 | 4-3 | |
 |  | 5.22 | 2-6 |
Mariners at Padres Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mariners 41-39 | +1.5 | -1.5+138 | o8.5-103 | -122 |
Padres 41-37 | u8.5 | +1.5-165 | u8.5-113 | +102 |
Petco ParkSan Diego
Mariners vs. Padres Expert Picks
Player Prop Savant
Last 30d: 100-67-0 (+29.4u)
Under 10.5 (Live)-115
1u
Sir Lockselot
Last 30d: 14-19-0 (-2.8u)
SEA -1.5+135
3u
📚Onyx
Wags Wins
Last 30d: 165-152-0 (-6.2u)
C.Young u0.5 Hits+113
0.75u
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 86-122-3 (-14.7u)
SD +106
1.06u
Cam Is Money
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
SD +106
1.06u
Sean Koerner🔮
Last 30d: 57-49-2 (+9.5u)
R.Arozarena o0.5 SB+400
0.15u
Out of 189 qualified pitchers, Buehler is allowing the 12th highest lead at the start of his delivery and the 16th highest SB attempt rate per opportunity.
That’s a great setup for someone like Arozarena to take advantage.
I’m projecting this closer to +330
L.Castillo u1.5 BB-115
0.58u
Castillo has historically walked right-handed hitters at a 3.5% lower rate, and the Padres are rolling out a righty-heavy lineup with 6 RHBs, which subtly lowers his expected walk rate.
Sheets and Cronenworth are his biggest walk risks, but even there it’s not ideal for the over. I only have about a 50/50 shot he faces Sheets a third time, and a very low chance he sees Cronenworth a 3rd time with him hitting 9th.
He’s also been getting ahead in the count at a very high rate this year, and the Padres have the 3rd highest swing rate, which should further limit free passes.
I’m projecting this closer to -140 and really like the underlying setup.
Kev Mahserejian
Last 30d: 12-8-0 (+2.2u)
SEA -120
2u
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 43-33-2 (+4.5u)
SD +105
1.05u
Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 83-92-1 (-2.4u)
SEA -120
3u
Frank Ammirante
Last 30d: 320-265-11 (+57.1u)
C.Raleigh o0.5 HR+272
0.1u
Ryan Minion
Last 30d: 276-270-14 (+60.6u)
F.Tatis o1.5 Total Bases+104
$1.00
Doug Ziefel
Last 30d: 160-188-11 (-4.2u)
W.Buehler o4.5 Hits Allowed-110
0.5u
Billy Ward
Last 30d: 17-19-1 (+2.6u)
Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-108
1.08u
Good to -115 (DK)
Grant Neiffer
Last 30d: 35-117-3 (+7.6u)
L.Raley o0.5 HR+600
0.5u
Doug Ziefel
Last 30d: 160-188-11 (-4.2u)
W.Buehler u15.5 Outs-140
0.5u
L.Castillo o16.5 Outs-103
0.52u
RoyalsProps
Last 30d: 57-58-0 (-10.1u)
X.Bogaerts o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+100
1u
Sean Zerillo
Last 30d: 148-125-9 (+4.4u)
Over 8-110
0.55u
Bet to -120
Matt Trollo
Last 30d: 74-82-9 (-9.6u)
SD +100 (F5)
0.5u
(FD) Castillo got smoked by a nearly entirely RH LU at home last time out after pitching poorly in LA (AL) his previous time out. He’s allowed six barrels to Buehler’s two. They may both be toast, but the Padres have a comparable offense, better defense and base running with possibly the best bullpen in the league anchored by a game shortener. (Wouldn’t play much higher) - Just caught an error. Meant for this to be full game. May have been able to tell by my mention of bullpens, but will leave it as it is and suffer the consequences.
Mariners vs. Padres Previews & Analysis
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Mariners vs. Padres Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Padres are 21-17 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Padres' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 17 of Padres' 40 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Mariners vs. Padres Injury Updates
Mariners Injuries
Padres Injuries
- Joe MusgroveSP
Musgrove is out with elbow
Out
Mariners vs. Padres Box Score
Mariners Player Stats| PITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 98 | 5.1 | 3 | 1 | |
 | 21 | 1.2 | 3 | 1 | |
 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Padres Player Stats| PITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 88 | 5 | 7 | 2 | |
 | 9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | |
 | 17 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | |
 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Mariners vs. Padres Odds Comparison
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Mariners at Padres Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Mariners 41-39 | N/A | N/A |
Padres 41-37 | N/A | N/A |