Marlins vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - June 15, 2026

I was waiting to see if it would be Connor Norby or Javier Sanoja hitting 9th for the Marlins today and Miami just announced it’ll be Sanoja, which makes this a noticeably tougher lineup for Wheeler to rack up Ks against. I cashed on Wheeler’s under 5.5 Ks in his last start, but he’s still showing up as a bit of a sell high in my expected Ks model. His actual K rate is still running about 3% higher than expected and a lot of that is due to a career-high 37% chase rate. Now for a borderline Hall of Fame type pitcher like Wheeler, getting hitters to chase at an above-average rate is nothing new. But 37% is a different level. At some point I’d expect that to drift closer to his career norms and when it does, his K rate could take a pretty decent hit. The reason is Wheeler is simultaneously allowing a career-high 86% contact rate on pitches in the zone. That’s a bit of a sneaky red flag because he’s missing fewer bats when he throws strikes. His whiff rate is down this season, but it’s been masked by hitters continuing to chase pitches out of the zone at an absurd rate. The Marlins profile as the type of lineup that could expose that. They have the 10th-lowest chase rate in baseball at just 29%. The only two starts this season where Wheeler faced a team that chased 31% or less, he finished with a season-low 4 Ks both times. So the sweat is pretty simple. We need the Marlins to not take the bait when Wheeler goes fishing by throwing a pitch out of the zone. Will Wheeler still end up with 7+ Ks because he’s Zack Wheeler? Possibly. But this is one of the better spots we’ve had in a while to fade him. I’m projecting this closer to -170 to stay under 6.5 Ks.

(DK) Gusto projections average almost exactly 4.5, giving Wheeler a 1.2 run edge and PHI half run better bullpen estimators L30 days, similar to BARTOLO rankings and ratings. But PHI 89 wRC+ vs RHP (offenses are closer than most expect) & MIA projects 13 FRV edge. Too high. Like to around +165.

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