Rays vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 1, 2026

Misiorowski was both elite and a bit lucky in his first start, racking up 11 Ks. It was about as favorable a setup as you can get, pitching at home in Milwaukee, one of the most K-friendly parks, and facing the White Sox. I had him closer to 7.6 adjusted Ks with a 38% adjusted K rate, which is obviously elite, but it’s still just one game. There’s only so much we can take from it. The White Sox bailed him out a bit with a 34% chase rate in a game where he only threw in the zone 38% of the time. This is a tougher test against the Rays, who have the 3rd lowest whiff rate on the season. I get that laying -132 on his under isn’t going to feel great, I obviously love his talent, but I do see some value here. His most likely outcome is exactly 6 Ks, which I have at around 16%. I’m projecting this closer to -160.

Targetting Sal Frelick vs Drew Rasmussen who is an amazing SB target. He allowed 17 steals on 23 attempts last season while allowing big leads & jumps to baserunners. LHB have found more success againt him & the Brewers are extremely aggressive on the base paths. So far this season — 2, 2, 1, 7, 1 steals. Great value on this one.