White Sox vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - April 1, 2023

White Sox at Astros

12:10 am • MLB Network

Chicago White Sox

0-0

3 - 6

Houston Astros

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Javier			4.56	10-5
L.Lynn			6.47	6-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
White Sox 0-0	+1.5-160	o8+100	+130
Astros 0-0	-1.5+130	u8-120	-160

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

April 01, 2023

Daikin ParkHouston

HOU -145

HOU -103

0.49u

L.Lynn u1.5 BB-125

1.25u

Lynn had a career low 3.7% BB% last season and had 1 or fewer walks in his final 15 starts. He picked up where he left off by only walking one batter in 9 IP of work in the WBC. The reason his walk rate is so low is he tends to get ahead in the count (65% first pitch strike rate ranked 23rd of 104) and he gets hitters to swing at a high rate (52% swing rate ranked 8th of 104). Projecting him to stay under 1.5 around 61% of the time

Under 4 (F5)-115

$43.48

Over 7.5-125

0.5u

Under 4 (F5)-134

0.75u

#charliedisturco @charliedisturco

HOU -148

0.68u

HOU -148

Under 7.5+100

0.5u

CWS +129

0.4u

Y.Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases+115

0.58u

Betrivers 11:37.

HOU -162

0.62u

Available at FanDuel. I've got the Astros at 64.9% to win versus 61.8% implied. A lot of that is due to Cristian Javier's improvements down the stretch where he jacked up his strikeout rate while also lowering the amount of hard contact he allows. He also benefits from facing the White Sox as a righty as their active roster had just a 95 wRC+ against righties last year. The Astros struggled last night, but I think this is a good bounce-back spot for them.

L.Lynn u6.5 Ks-146

0.68u

Available at FanDuel. I have Lynn's strikeout projection at 5.2, which may be a bit low given how deep he can go into games. But he's facing an Astros active roster that had just an 18.8% strikeout rate against righties last year. Lynn wasn't as big of a strikeout guy last year, though he did reduce his sinker usage across his final 10 starts. It didn't change things much, though, as his strikeout rate in that time was still just fine at 24.1%. I'd rather take under 6.5 at -146 at FD than get plus money on under 5.5 elsewhere.

CWS +143

0.6u

Under 4.5 (F5)-137

0.25u

Bet to -150 or 4 (-115)

Under 7.5+100

0.5u

Bet to -105

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The Astros are 39-27 (.591) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The White Sox are 29-31 (.483) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season -- 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The White Sox are 62-42 (.596) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.

The Astros were 31-15 (.674) vs the 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 -- best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Kyle Tucker hit 13 home runs on breaking pitches last season -- tied for 10th most in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Dylan Cease threw his slider 43% of the time last season -- highest among qualified SPs-- 100th Percentile.

Alex Bregman struck out in just 7% of PA's over the last 30 days -- fifth lowest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Lance Lynn had a strikeout rate of just 16% vs right-handed batters over the last 30 days -- 10th lowest among qualified SPs-- 17th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 41-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19
White Sox	68-93	34-46	34-47	5-3	63-90

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24
White Sox	66-86-9	31-46-3	35-40-6	4-3-1	62-83-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22
White Sox	41-121	23-57	18-63	5-3	36-117

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 30th	CWS	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	CWS -142
Mar 26th	STL	W 24-1	-1.5 W	O 9	HOU -179
Mar 25th	@WSH	W 6-1	-	-	HOU -160
Mar 24th	@MIA	L 2-3	-	-	MIA +119
Mar 23rd	WSH	W 5-4	-	-	HOU -192

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Drew Thorpe
P
Thorpe is out with arm
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Lynn, P	96	5.2	6	2
RJ.Lambert, P	4	0.1	0	0
RK.Graveman, P	15	0.2	0	3
LJ.Diekman, P	12	0.1	0	1
RJ.Ruiz, P	18	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1T.Anderson, SS	2-4	1	0
2L.Robert, CF	1-5	0	0
3A.Benintendi, LF	1-5	1	0
4E.Jimenez, DH	2-4	1	2
5Y.Moncada, 3B	3-4	0	1
6G.Sheets, 1B	0-4	0	0
7Y.Grandal, C	1-4	0	0
8O.Colas, RF	0-3	0	0
9E. Andrus, 2B	1-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Javier, P	82	5	6	3
RP.Maton, P	13	1	1	0
RS.Martinez, P	13	1	0	0
RB.Abreu, P	12	1	3	0
RR.Montero, P	20	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Pena, SS	1-3	1	0	0
2A.Bregman, 3B	0-3	1	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, LF	1-3	0	0	3
4J.Abreu, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
5K.Tucker, RF	1-3	2	1	2
6C.Julks, DH	1-4	0	0	0
7D.Hensley, 2B	2-3	0	0	1
8J.Meyers, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9M.Maldonado, C	0-3	1	0	0