Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Odds & Betting Predictions - March 8, 2025

Hate the odds but like the play. Mavs down to 8 bodies with Caleb Martin expected to play, and potentially 9 if Dante Exum (questionable) can play. Fine if you want to wait for that news. Projections have Dinwiddie at 30 minutes and 3 rebounds, so it does feel like a coin flip. But last game, Dinwiddie grabbed just 1 rebound in 4 rebound chances against the Bucks. Grizzlies allow the 12th fewest rebounds per game so on paper it’s a slightly worse matchup. For the season, Dinwiddie has averaged 2.3 rebounds over 25.2 minutes per game, and 30 minutes is a fair median projection for this game without having the Exum news. Not touching his points or assist props, but given he only saw 4 rebound chances last game, taking a shot on the under 3.5 here at half a unit.

I’m gonna be fading the Mavs a lot down the stretch when the value is there. Grizzlies aren’t playing the best ball lately but that’s why I think this is a perfect “get right” opportunity for them. Obviously the Mavs are in shambles and their offense isn’t going to be able to keep up, plus the Mavs defense has been trending down after all the injuries.

Via @TurveyBets

Memphis' offense has been rolling—123.0 PPG (1st), 48.3% FG, and 13.7 3PM per game. Dallas' defense is a mess, allowing 117.0 PPG (23rd) and 46.1% FG. Grizzlies dominate the boards (47.5 RPG, 2nd) while Mavs struggle (43.8 RPG). Without Irving, Dallas lacks firepower—last 5 games: 104.8 PPG, 43.0% FG. Mavs’ injuries are devastating—no Irving, Davis, Gafford, Lively, or Martin. Klay Thompson forced into a lead role but shot just 11-27 last game. Memphis should dominate inside—Mavs allowing 51.4 RPG last 5 games. Grizzlies just handled Dallas 119-104 in January, covering a -4.5 spread with ease. Memphis on a skid but facing a depleted Mavs squad missing its top scorers. Ja Morant (24 PPG) should torch a weak Dallas backcourt. Mavs' offense crumbling—98, 103, 99 points in 3 of last 5 games. Memphis’ defense shaky but won’t be tested here. Blowout potential.