Mavericks vs. Clippers Odds & Betting Predictions - May 2, 2024

#Tailing @kylemurray03

IT’S 3PM SOMEWHERE!!

@HPBasketball

Has to be done

Royal told me to do this

#tailing @JoeDellera & @PropBetGuy

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/propbetguy-bet-norman-powell-prop-mavericks-vs-clippers-game-5-wednesday-may-1

This should be -135* Nice sell high. This is a coach speak and regression spot. Without Kawhi in Game 4, Harden went 4-5 from 3PT (80%), going 3-3 from 3PT in the first half on tightly contested shots, followed by only attempting one 3-pointer in the 2nd half. The splits were not a coincidence as it was all part of Mavs coach Jason Kidd’s scheme. His comments in the postgame media acknowledged the game plan was to bait him into taking 2s, which is better off than shooting 3s. Harden was less than 30% on his floaters during the regular season so this checks out. Harden averages 3.19 3PM Per-36 MIN in the 418 minutes this season with Paul George ON the court and Kawhi/Batum/Covington/Hyland/PJ OFF the court. Expecting the very most 6-7 attempts out of Harden here. That has a hit rate of 19/22 going U3.5 3PM (86.4%) should that be the case. It’s unlikely lack of volume will meet with efficiency. #PlayerProps

Only way I’d ever fade Luka

Under in 3 straight games, bro is cooking tonight

#Tailing @ChrisRaybon

The Clippers and Mavericks are in a tightly contested series and are tied 2-2 headed into Game 5. Kawhi Leonard (knee) has already been ruled out and the primary beneficiary has been Norman Powell despite Amir Coffey joining the starting lineup. Powell has averaged 13.9 ppg in 26.2 minutes per game on the season. It’s a bit surprising that he has actually averaged 1 point fewer in 14 games without Kawhi than with him this season (12.9 vs 13.9); however, the volume has increased in the games without him. Besides the anticipated uptick in volume, Powell has played well the last two games with 21 and 11 points. He is a capable scorer and he has played nearly 30 mins in each game this series. When Powell has played 25+ minutes this season, he has averaged 15.5 points and exceeded this 10.5 line in 84% of games. Even if this bumps to 11.5, he’s exceeded this in 76% of games. I expect Powell to take advantage of the increased workload and exceed 10.5 points today and don’t mind a sprinkle of 15+ (+240 FD).