Nuggets vs. Rockets Odds & Betting Predictions - November 22, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Adams in. Project closer to 60% to stay under 6.5. Amen’s rebound rate is down a bit this season, likely due to KD and with Adams getting more minutes. He’s seen a huge drop off in terms of FT rebound rate which dings him close to 0.5 rebounds in this spot specifically. Nuggets are a good shooting team and the Rockets are expected to get around 5 fewer rebounds tonight (as a team) compared to their season rate

Amen Thompson ⬆️ 4.5 Assists (-120 @ Bet365)(HOU) Collab w/ @SC_FFB 🤝 • 5+ assists in 8/13 (61.5%) games, averaging 5.2 assists on 11.0 potentials • 5+ assists in 8/12 (66.7%) games with Jabari Smith Jr., averaging 5.3 assists on 11.3 potentials • 6 assists on 8 potentials in the last game against Denver (04/13/25) Amen should really be getting a line similar to Sengun (6.5). Sengun is averaging just 0.9 more potentials per game and one more min per game than Thompson. With Jokic struggling more as a defender, Sengun might be relied on more as a scoring option in this one as the team tries to keep pace with DEN's offense. This should be a competitive game!

NBA POD

This should be an absolute slugfest of a game between two of the West — and the league’s — top three teams. There are a lot of ways to look at this. Let’s start with basketball sides. * Houston is tied with Denver for the No.1 offense, schedule-adjusted, at DunksAndThrees.com. * These two teams take the least (Rockets) and fifth-least (Nuggets) 3’s per 100 possessions, respectively, while shooting above league average, and in the Rockets’ case, the best 3-point percentage in the league. * This is a battle of the best 3-point shooting team this season by percentage (Houston) vs. the best 3-point defense by percentage (Nuggets). For what it’s worth, analytics experts believe opponent 3-point shooting is mostly variance. * The Rockets are the No.1 Offensive Rebound team and the Nuggets are the No.2 Defensive Rebound team by possession rate in the league. * Denver is a better half-court and transition offense, but the Rockets make up for it with their second-chance opportunities. * Expect to see a lot of bigs in this game. The Rockets will go to double-big with Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun; Denver can counter with Jonas Valanciunas next to Nikola Jokic. * Alperen Sengun beat Jokic and Serbia in Eurobasket this summer primarily behind his developed ability to hit 3’s. Now for trends: * Jokic is 6-4 SU against Sengun but 4-5-1 ATS. * Ime Udoka is 5-2 SU against Jokic in his career, 4–2-1 ATS. * The Rockets are 7th in free throw rate and play smash ball. When Udoka is a home favorite against a team that averages fewer free throws allowed (so defensive free throws given up) than Houston averages, the Rockets are 32-21 (64%) ATS. * The Rockets have led by an average greater than eight points after the third quarter this season. Those teams at home since 2023 as less than a two-possession (>-4.5) favorite are 25-10-1 (74%) ATS. * The Nuggets are 36-46-1 (44%) ATS on the road as less than four-point dogs or favored. * Home teams over .500 in tournament play are 46-27-2 (63%) ATS. This is a little bit of a smoke and mirrors game. The Nuggets’ defense isn’t as good as the stats say. The Rockets’ offense is at what may be its absolute peak this season. But Denver’s more reliant on 3-point variance. The Rockets attack the Nuggets’ strength as well as any team. The Nuggets attack the Rockets’ strengths well. But Houston’s at home, motivated, and more healthy. Both are technically missing expected starters but Houston hasn’t needed or had Dorrian Finney-Smith all season long, but Christian Braun is out for the Nuggets. Sengun can spread Jokic out to the 3-point line where he’s uncomfortable and vulnerable defensively. Kevin Durant doesn’t have anyone who can guard him — not that anyone can. Denver’s transition offense is mistake-prone right now which takes easy points off the board. I’ll take the Rockets -2.5 and the over 234.5, plus Alperen Sengun over 0.5 3’s. #⭐️⭐️

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