S. Florida vs. Louisville Odds & Betting Predictions - March 19, 2026

Red birds

#EV

Giffen Guide to March Madness: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/nick-giffens-moneyline-rollover-picks-2026-guide-march-madness

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Brown’s absence will free up shots and Wooley had a few double digit attempt games during Brown’s last injury window.

Second-highest projected total on Thursday. South Florida will look to push the pace at every turn (15th) Enis has been hot, exceeding 17 points in 7 of his last 8 games. Multiple routes to a big game: 3PT volume, FT volume. He has multiple games with 9 made FTs in the last month and seven games with nine or more 3PT attempts since mid-February. Defender options for Enis are limited with Mikel Brown out. That leaves us with Ryan Conwell. If it’s Conwell, that’s good news because he grades out as a C+ defender and C+ in terms of foul rate per Evan Miya. Adrian Wooley is even worse at a C, which is the 46th percentile in foul rate.

#Tailing @nick_giffen

Prop show

Tailing @nick_giffen here. Like this with no Mikel in a track meet

#Tailing @nick_giffen

Projecting 12.9

#NO #MIKEL

B105 too low of line

The Bulls profile as a team capable of making the second weekend for a few key reasons. They’ve embraced the modern “Rim & 3” approach. They attack the tin, get to the line relentlessly, and take 29 threes per game (22nd). When you blend that approach with the second-fastest tempo in the field, you have a potential March darling on your hands.  If you consult Torvik’s March Madness comps for this year’s USF team, you’ll find a lot of Big Dance success for teams that play like USF. Dating back to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, ten teams feature similar statistical profiles to South Florida. Those ten teams averaged .8 wins per NCAA Tournament, with 2008 Western Kentucky (#12) and 2010 Washington (#11) both appearing in the Sweet 16 as double-digit seeds. After opening in the +250 moneyline range, this number cratered and could end up closing in the +170 neighborhood. Mikel Brown’s back injury has injected additional intrigue into this one because the difference between Brown playing at 100% and him sitting on the bench in street clothes is gargantuan. And now it’s official, he’s out. Brown was a microwave capable of dropping 40+ as he did earlier this year when he made 10 three-pointers against Baylor. The UL offense takes a major step back when he’s off the court. Without Brown, the Cardinals got drilled by Tennessee and didn’t have the firepower to hang with Duke and Virginia. One noticeable difference is that without Brown slashing to the hoop, the Cards rarely get to the line. They finished outside the top 300 in FT rate for that five-week stretch without Brown in December and January. USF has the firepower to spark the upset. All five USF starters average north of 11 points per game, and the insanely athletic Izaiyah Nelson (15 ppg, 10 rpg, 3 stocks) can hold his own in the paint.