Jets vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2025

Projection: +166. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

9-1 for a WR who played 96% of snaps last week with Josh Reynolds out (out again) now with a QB who will throw more, and more accurately than Fields? I'm in

Everyone's buzzing about Baker Mayfield after two late-game comebacks and no interceptions yet, but Mayfield has been incredibly lucky to not throw a pick yet. He leads the league with six Turnover Worthy Plays so far per PFF, tied with Bo Nix, who has looked about as bad as any starter. In fact, only six quarterbacks over half that many — an ugly list that includes Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Bryce Young, and J.J. McCarthy. That makes this a great opportunity to buy low on a Baker Mayfield interception, a rare chance to get in at a plus number at +105 (bet365). Mayfield led the league last year with 16 interceptions. He threw at least one interception in over half his games each of the past two seasons for the Bucs, 56% of them overall, and that about matches his lifetime number with at least one pick in 60-of-105 starts, a 57% hit rate. That should mean a clear minus number for interception odds, and we're getting plus money. How about a little escalator, in case the regression all comes at once? Mayfield is +525 to throw at least two interceptions (bet365). He did that five times last year even en route to the Bucs winning the division, and he's thrown at least two picks in 22-of-105 career starts, a 21% hit rate that should imply a number under +400. Mayfield's teams are only 6-16 SU in those games with multiple interceptions. That makes sense, and since we're playing the Jets anyway, it's worth parlaying multiple interceptions with a Jets ML pick at +2275 (bet365) if your book allows it. I also like betting Mayfield to lead the league in interceptions again at +2500 (bet365). He just did that last year, and the season still has a long ways to go in a wonky market. The current leader in odds, Jake Browning, didn't even play Week 1 and may not start all season! Mayfield had 16 last year and also has seasons of 14 and 21, so he can close in a hurry. Buy the dip.

This time, the offensive line injuries help us. The Bucs offensive line is decimated. Stud LT Tristan Wirfs has yet to play and looks unlikely for Week 3, and now the entire right side of the line is out too. RT Luke Goedeke is out indefinitely, and young star RG Cody Mauch is out for the season. A healthy Tampa line might have been the best in the league, but this is a makeshift line and a huge downgrade, one that can have a cascading effect on the entire offense. Baker Mayfield has not been good under pressure. Tampa Bay is also missing Calijah Kancey on its defensive line now too, so that's a lot of beef in the trenches missing. New York's big injury is Justin Fields. Tyrod Taylor will get the start in Fields' place, but are we sure that's even a downgrade? Might it actually be an upgrade? No Fields would limit the Jets' ceiling long-term, but in the short-term, Taylor is the much better passer, opening up this offense, and he makes significantly fewer mistakes. That's a much better formula for an underdog. The Jets have been the run-heaviest team in the NFL, probably not an ideal formula against Vita Vea and a very stout Bucs run defense, but Taylor could allow them pass a bit more and a potentially windy, rainy game could also keep things close. This is an obvious letdown spot for Tampa Bay, playing on short rest after back-to-back miraculous late comeback wins, and with the Eagles up next week too. Are we sure the Bucs are a full touchdown better? By DVOA thus far, these teams are basically equal, with Tampa Bay at No. 19 and New York at No. 21, helped by a huge special teams advantage for the Jets, and that's before factoring in all those injuries. I make this closer to a field goal, showing clear value on the Jets side. This is my fourth-best Kitchen Sink spot but has my single strongest indicator within the trend, with 0-2 teams like the Jets coming off a loss of 20 or more points an awesome 15-2 ATS (88%) in week 3. This is also the top Luck Rankings side of the week, with such sides 75% ATS in Weeks 3 and 4. You don't have to like the Jets. Just bet the spot, bet the number, bet against overconfidence with Jets +7 — and obviously be sure to grab the key number if you can. You may want to touch the +280 moneyline (DraftKings) with a portion of your bet as well; 0-2 road underdogs since 2018 are 11-15 SU, an impressive record, and that includes 7-9 as dogs of 5+ points with an awesome 80% ROI.

This time, the offensive line injuries help us. The Bucs offensive line is decimated. Stud LT Tristan Wirfs has yet to play and looks unlikely for Week 3, and now the entire right side of the line is out too. RT Luke Goedeke is out indefinitely, and young star RG Cody Mauch is out for the season. A healthy Tampa line might have been the best in the league, but this is a makeshift line and a huge downgrade, one that can have a cascading effect on the entire offense. Baker Mayfield has not been good under pressure. Tampa Bay is also missing Calijah Kancey on its defensive line now too, so that's a lot of beef in the trenches missing. New York's big injury is Justin Fields. Tyrod Taylor will get the start in Fields' place, but are we sure that's even a downgrade? Might it actually be an upgrade? No Fields would limit the Jets' ceiling long-term, but in the short-term, Taylor is the much better passer, opening up this offense, and he makes significantly fewer mistakes. That's a much better formula for an underdog. The Jets have been the run-heaviest team in the NFL, probably not an ideal formula against Vita Vea and a very stout Bucs run defense, but Taylor could allow them pass a bit more and a potentially windy, rainy game could also keep things close. This is an obvious letdown spot for Tampa Bay, playing on short rest after back-to-back miraculous late comeback wins, and with the Eagles up next week too. Are we sure the Bucs are a full touchdown better? By DVOA thus far, these teams are basically equal, with Tampa Bay at No. 19 and New York at No. 21, helped by a huge special teams advantage for the Jets, and that's before factoring in all those injuries. I make this closer to a field goal, showing clear value on the Jets side. This is my fourth-best Kitchen Sink spot but has my single strongest indicator within the trend, with 0-2 teams like the Jets coming off a loss of 20 or more points an awesome 15-2 ATS (88%) in week 3. This is also the top Luck Rankings side of the week, with such sides 75% ATS in Weeks 3 and 4. You don't have to like the Jets. Just bet the spot, bet the number, bet against overconfidence with Jets +7 — and obviously be sure to grab the key number if you can. You may want to touch the +280 moneyline (DraftKings) with a portion of your bet as well; 0-2 road underdogs since 2018 are 11-15 SU, an impressive record, and that includes 7-9 as dogs of 5+ points with an awesome 80% ROI.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/mwsC0lYENWb

Tyrod Taylor over 27.5 pass att (-110 ESPN / Caesars) Compared to Fields, Tyrod is going to scramble less and take fewer sacks over the long run, so per dropback there's a higher pass attempt rate per dropback The Jets should also just be more pass happy with Tyrod at QB instead of Fields, with fewer designed runs for the QB. Play volume should also be higher as Tampa Bay is one of the faster paced teams (8th in sec/snap first two weeks), and with more Jets passing means more clock stoppage/quicker drives Jets ran 54.5 plays per game in their first two games Conservatively projecting closer to 59 plays, but likely long-term this would be in the low 60s TB stops the run (5th fewest yds/gm, 5th lowest yds/att allowed), so you'll need to throw on them to have success 29.5 Pass Att is my conservative projection for Taylor, but this is very game script dependent and the Jets are the unlucky team in this Luck Rankings game, meaning more likely to cover the 6.5-point spread However, still quite possible to hit both bets (jets cover, tyrod over pass att) as long as the Jets aren't leading by a TD+ most of the game. Ladder offers value too in the event the spread is accurate or TB covers