Steelers vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - September 15, 2024

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Watch this be absolute air

Via Stu Durst - The Extra Point

Another bet we have loved all week. Big fade of Tomlin on the road as a favorite and of Justin Fields in this spot.

I am biggest Justin Fields hater for sure in RotoGrinders Discord, but also possibly anywhere. So for me to be looking at the over is an expression of confidence that this passing yardage benchmark is too low. The narrative is in place for good reason that the Steelers will prefer to run it and that the Quarterback is much better suited to a game that doesn’t rely on his decision making. That said, our simulations of the game flow leave more instances of a Justin Fields over 160.5 than under. We will side with the sims and projected prop edge over narratives.

TAN pod best bets

🔬 Arthur smith showed us he is exactly who he thought he was running Najee 20 times last week. Smith also compared Najee to Derrick Henry after the game….he’s going to keep feeding this man the ball. And In tomorrows matchup the Steelers O line has a slight edge over Denver’s front who allowed 103 yards and a touchdown on 20 Carries last week ( Charbs also found his way into the endzone by reception) - Steelers defense should also create short fields for the offense to work with.

TOUCHDOWN SHOW SPICY BET No. 1. Already on him for 1TD. LET THE MAN RUN!!

Najee Harris over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-105 Fliff/ -127 FD/Czrs) Another line where right as I go to place it, the line jumps lol. However, even with it moving from 14.5 to 15.5, I still like this spot for Harris. The Steelers have a new QB in Justin Fields and in Week 1, we saw Najee Harris used a lot in this offense. In week 1 we saw HC Mike Tomlin use a nice mix of run and pass to help out his new QB. I expect this style of offense to continue in week 2. The Steelers will be on the road in Denver and will face a rookie QB in Bo Nix. I bring this up because this give Najee and the Steelers a favorable game script. After watching how both these teams played in week 1, I think the Steelers have the edge in this one and are a -3 favorite on the books right now. Najee had 20 carries in week 1 for 70 yards against a much better Falcons defense than he will face this Sunday. Kenneth Walker was able to run all over the Broncos with 20 carries for 103 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and a TD to go with it. I can see a very similar game here in week 2. Tomlin always finds ways to get the best out of his teams and with Fields under center, the best way to help him is to lean on the run game. The Broncos allowed Walker 5.2 YPC which ranks bottom 6 in the NFL after week 1. Not a big sample size, but this Broncos run defense ranked 30th last season and it looks to be just as bad this season. I think we have a favorable game script here for Harris and we will see the Steelers use him a lot through out the game, then in the 4th quarter when they are up, lean on him to close it out. Harris is over this line in 4/L5 games dating back to the end of last season and 6/L7 in games his team won.

Exec Decision

Coming off a 20 carry performance against the Falcons, where Arthur Smith compared him to Derrick Henry, this should be another excellent spot to fire up Najee. The Broncos run defense (31st in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA last season), was eviscerated by Kenneth Walker last week. Jaylen Warren is reportedly still not 100% healthy. And the Steelers aren’t going to let Justin Fields (or Russ, if he plays) throw much in a neutral to positive gamescript (60% rush plays last week). I also don’t see Bo Nix being able to control the clock against a solid Steelers defense.

⭐️ Play of the Week Bo struggled in Week 1. He was extremely inaccurate & had 3 turnover worthy plays & a 41.8 Passing Grade (per PFF) Now he’ll matchup up with a Steelers defense that played great in Week 1, limiting the Falcons to just 10 points & intercepting Kirk Cousins twice PFF is giving the Broncos O-Line a -27% Pass Block Disadvantage - TJ Watt should continue to dominate and generate pressure which should lead to more inaccurate throws & poor decisions from Nix 15/L21 QBs to go up against this PIT defense have thrown a pick

Pick Em #1

Exec decision per favs pod Model makes this +2.11 good value. Tomlin as road favorite 44%

I was leaning this way after our breakdown on The Favorites podcast. Luck Rankings confirmed it.