Astros vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - October 11, 2023

Astros at Twins

11:07 pm • FS1

Houston Astros

3-1

3 - 2

Minnesota Twins

1-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Ryan			4.50	0-0
J.Urquidy			5.40	1-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Astros 3-1	N/A	N/A	N/A
Twins 1-3	N/A	N/A	N/A

Wednesday 11:07 p.m.

October 11, 2023

Target FieldMinneapolis

Y.Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases-110

$1.10

MIN -125

10u

Y.Alvarez o0.5 BB-135

0.14u

Late here but if Twins don’t IBB him we riot

MIN -120

0.6u

Y.Alvarez o0.5 BB-135

0.5u

J.Ryan u14.5 Outs-145

0.1u

J.Ryan u4.5 Ks-110

0.1u

MIN -124 (F5)

0.62u

See notes for MIN side - by actual LUs MIN def 26 RP edge

HOU +105

$10.50

HOU +145 (F5)

1.45u

Gorgeous line on a team that’s heating up and has a shot to take it all the way back home. Think they strike first today and stay ahead with Sota possibly rallying in the 7th.

HOU +105

1.05u

Energy play with @Hammons

HOU +106

1.06u

MIN -125

1.25u

MIN -125

Biev would be proud of me right now

MIN -125 (F5)

0.63u

Bet to -135

Over 7.5-114

DK boost

J.Polanco o0.5 Hits-160

0.75u

J.Urquidy u3.5 Ks-111

0.5u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-106

0.57u

Player prop piece up!

Y.Alvarez o0.5 BB+115

2.5u

J.Ryan o1.5 BB+145

0.5u

Y.Alvarez o0.5 BB+105

@charliedisturco

Y.Alvarez o0.5 BB+115

0.5u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

0.5u

Y.Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases+110

0.5u

J.Ryan u14.5 Outs-125

0.5u

HOU +110

0.55u

HOU +108 (F5)

0.54u

Over 8-110

0.55u

HOU +105

$1.05

MIN -125

0.63u

Urquidy 5.24 SIERA/4.67 xERA, Ryan 3.44/3.51 - MIN 4 pt wRC+ edge v RHP - by projected LUs, MIN def 12 Runs Prevented better - MIN may have the better pen too.

Under 8.5-108

0.5u

Bet to -121 or 8 (-102)

MIN -122

0.61u

Bet to -125

Featured Insight
Twins have struck out 27% over the last week -- highest in MLB. Astros have a strikeout rate of 24% over the last week -- tied for sixth-highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Twins hitters have a hard-hit rate of 42% this season -- fourth-best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 41% against the Astros this season -- tied for seventh-worst in MLB.

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The Astros are 27-18 (.600) after a road win this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.

Yainer Diaz is slugging .538 this season -- 13th best among hitters with at least 241 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Joe Ryan has allowed a SLG of .530 vs right-handed batters this season -- 10th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- eighth Percentile.

Jose Urquidy has allowed a slugging percentage of .614 (86 Total Bases / 140 ABs) on fastballs away since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .378 -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Twins are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 39 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	78-84	37-44	41-40	36-51	40-31
Astros	82-80	37-44	45-36	43-60	39-18

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	73-83-6	39-39-3	34-44-3	42-42-3	29-39-3
Astros	72-83-7	36-43-2	36-40-5	45-56-2	25-27-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	21-26	38-43	32-49	41-46	28-43
Astros	19-29	46-35	41-40	56-47	31-26

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 10th	HOU	L 1-9	-	-	-
Oct 9th	@HOU	W 6-2	-	-	-
Oct 7th	@HOU	L 4-6	-	-	-
Oct 4th	TOR	W 2-0	-	-	-
Oct 3rd	TOR	W 3-1	-	-	-

Pablo Lopez
SP
Lopez is out with elbow
Out
David Festa
SP
Festa is out with shoulder
Out
Travis Adams
SP
Adams is out with triceps
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Urquidy, P	82	5.2	6	2
RH.Neris, P	23	1.1	3	0
RB.Abreu, P	12	1	2	0
RR.Pressly, P	18	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2A.Bregman, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, DH	1-4	1	0	0
4K.Tucker, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Abreu, 1B	2-4	1	1	2
6M. Brantley, LF	1-4	1	1	1
6M.Dubon, CF	0-0	0	0	0
7C.McCormick, CF	2-3	0	0	0
7C.McCormick, LF	2-3	0	0	0
8J.Pena, SS	0-3	0	0	0
9M.Maldonado, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Ryan, P	26	2	1	1
RB.Stewart, P	12	1	1	0
LC.Thielbar, P	17	0.2	1	2
RC.Paddack, P	29	2.1	4	0
RG.Jax, P	18	1	2	0
RJ.Duran, P	23	2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Julien, DH	2-3	1	1	1
2J.Polanco, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3R.Lewis, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
4M.Kepler, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5C.Correa, SS	0-3	0	0	0
6R.Jeffers, C	0-3	0	0	0
7W.Castro, LF	0-3	0	0	0
7W.Castro, CF	0-3	0	0	0
8D.Solano, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
9M.Taylor, CF	0-2	0	0	0
9B.Buxton, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9M.Wallner, LF	0-0	0	0	0