Dodgers vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - March 19, 2025

Dodgers at Cubs

10:10 am • Fox Sports 1

Los Angeles Dodgers

3-0

6 - 3

Chicago Cubs

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Steele			8.00	1-1
R.Sasaki			3.00	0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dodgers 3-0	-1.5	-1.5+110	o8-102	-148
Cubs 1-2	u8.5	+1.5-130	u8-118	+124

Wednesday 10:10 a.m.

March 19, 2025

Tokyo DomeBunkyo

Under 8.5-115

Roki Sasaki makes his MLB debut after dominating Japan with a 2.02 ERA and elite strikeout numbers. Cubs hitters have never faced him—expect a lot of swings and misses. Justin Steele owns a 3.00 ERA vs. LAD, and current Dodgers hitters are just 6-for-46 (.146) against him. Both teams struggled with situational hitting in Game 1, going a combined 4-for-22 with RISP. The Cubs' offense managed just three hits and struck out nine times. The Dodgers lineup is dangerous but will be without Mookie Betts and possibly Freddie Freeman. That limits their upside. The Tokyo Dome plays neutral for runs, and bullpens are fresh. The Dodgers' relievers tossed four no-hit innings in the opener, and Chicago’s pen ranks mid-pack. With Sasaki's debut and Steele's track record, expect another low-scoring affair.

Under 8-113

#BQ

Under 8-115

2.3u

S.Ohtani o0.5 HR+235

0.59u

S.Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases-125

J.Steele u14.5 Outs-140

0.5u

Steele made three Spring Training appearances, throwing just 28, 33, and 62 pitches. I’m estimating he has a leash of 70-75 pitches here, and I’m hoping this Dodgers offense that was top-3 last season against LHP can do enough damage to limit Steele to a 4-inning outing. Mookie Betts likely sits due to illness but it sounds like Freddie Freeman should be back, which should help this bet. Biggest factor for me is the Cubs carried 11 relievers to Tokyo. They used 3 yesterday, leaving them with 8 arms they can go to on Wednesday.

W.Smith o0.5 Doubles+350

0.88u

P.Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Runs Scored+185

0.3u

P.Crow-Armstrong o0.5 SB+320

0.3u

CHC +1.5-130

0.35u

CHC +1.5-127

1.27u

LAD -1-120

1.67u

LAD -144

0.69u

Don’t personally get all the hype on the Cubs and if you’re giving me this number again with the Dodgers I’m taking it most of the time. Also fading Steele for the Cubs as he really struggled in spring training

R.Sasaki u4.5 Ks-150

0.5u

Missed out on his Under 13.5 Outs so taking Under 4.5 Strikeouts. He had two spring training games where he finished with just 46 and 41 pitches. Don’t think he goes more than 4 innings here and don’t think he’d even be starting this game if it weren’t in Tokyo as he’s not stretched out. He did strikeout 1.27 batters per inning in the NBP so this is a scary fade, but Cubs were league-average last year in strikeout rate against RHP. Just hoping Sasaki has a short leash and the Cubs can make enough contact in what I expect to be an abbreviated start.

R.Sasaki u13.5 Outs-120

0.83u

Over 7.5-122

0.82u

Have this total at 8.34 runs. Both teams hit the opposing starter's handedness well, and the Tokyo Dome's park factor isn't outlandishly bad.

J.Steele u4.5 Ks-130

Have Steele projected for 75 pitches, which puts his strikeout projection at 3.77 for me.

R.Sasaki u4.5 Ks-106

0.94u

Have him projected at 4.17 due to a projected low pitch count.

Over 7.5-122

0.82u

Have this at 8.34 runs. Both offenses excel against the opposing starter's handedness, and the Tokyo Dome -- in general -- has been just a bit below average for park factor.

J.Steele u4.5 Ks-130

Have Steele projected at 3.77 due to a lower pitch count (have him pegged for 75 -- maxed out at 62 in the spring) and a low-strikeout opponent, even after accounting for no Mookie Betts.

R.Sasaki u4.5 Ks-106

0.94u

Have Sasaki projected at 4.16 strikeouts. Pitchers in that range have gone under 4.5 strikeouts at a 57% clip, presenting value on the under.

CHC +0.5 (F5)-125

1.25u

Avery

R.Sasaki u13.5 Outs-105

Sasaki threw 46 and 41 pitches in his two official Spring Training outings. LA got 5 innings out of Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Tuesday, with short relievers covering the final 4 innings. My guy Nick Galaida pointed out that Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski are both on hand to cover multiple innings in relief. Knack went 2+ innings in his final two Spring Training outings, getting up to 50 pitches. Wrobleski lasted 3+ innings in his last two Spring Training appearances, reaching 58 pitches. Knack and Wrobleski are arguably more stretched out than Sasaki right now. The Dodgers don't play for another week, so there's no reason to hold these guys back. Chicago was a pesky lineup in 2024, ranking 9th in pitches seen per plate appearance. They returned largely the same group this season, with the addition of Kyle Tucker and his excellent plate discipline.

S.Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases-114

Betting Ohtani bases every game of 2025: 1-0 YTD (+1u)

CHC o3.5 Team Total-108

1.08u

Johnny

J.Steele u14.5 Outs-130

0.1u

Bet to -140

R.Sasaki u14.5 Outs-120

0.1u

Bet to 13.5 (-110)

Over 8-114

Under 8.5-115

0.58u

Bet to 8 (+100) w Freeman or -105 without

CHC +135

0.5u

Game 2. Bet to +118 (Betts presumed OUT)

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 1-2 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 1-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 1-0 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Cubs' last 3 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Cubs' 2 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	1-2	0-2	1-0	N/A	1-2
Dodgers	2-1	0-1	2-0	2-1	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	2-1	1-1	1-0	N/A	2-1
Dodgers	2-1	1-0	1-1	2-1	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	1-2	0-2	1-0	N/A	1-2
Dodgers	3-0	1-0	2-0	3-0	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 18th	LAD	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	LAD +124
Mar 11th	MIL	L 7-9	-1.5 L	O 12	MIL -185
Mar 10th	@CLE	W 7-4	-	-	-
Mar 9th	SF	L 6-8	-	-	-
Mar 8th	SEA	W 9-8	-1.5 L	O 10.5	CHC -141

Clayton Kershaw
P
Kershaw is out with toe
Out
Michael Kopech
P
Kopech is out with arm
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out with back
Out
Michael Grove
P
Grove is out with shoulder
Out
River Ryan
P
Ryan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out for season with shoulder
Out for Season
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Sasaki, P	56	3	3	1
RL.Garcia, P	25	1	2	1
LJ. Dreyer, P	19	1	1	1
RL.Knack, P	30	2	3	0
RK.Yates, P	21	1	2	0
LA.Vesia, P	23	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Ohtani, DH	1-3	1	1	1
2T.Edman, 2B	1-5	1	1	1
3T.Hernandez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
4W.Smith, C	1-2	2	0	0
5M.Muncy, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
6E.Hernandez, 1B	1-3	1	1	3
7M.Conforto, LF	1-3	0	0	0
8M.Rojas, SS	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Pages, CF	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Steele, P	67	4	5	5
RN.Pearson, P	17	1	2	1
LC.Thielbar, P	13	1	1	0
RJ.Merryweather, P	17	1	0	0
RP.Hodge, P	15	1	1	0
RR.Pressly, P	16	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1I.Happ, LF	1-4	0	1
2S.Suzuki, DH	0-4	0	0
3K.Tucker, RF	1-4	0	1
4M.Busch, 1B	0-3	0	0
4J.Turner, PH	0-0	0	0
4V.Brujan, PR	0-0	0	0
5M.Shaw, 3B	1-5	1	0
6D.Swanson, SS	1-3	0	1
7P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	0-4	0	0
8C.Kelly, C	1-3	1	0
9J.Berti, 2B	3-4	1	0