Padres vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - September 1, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Dylan Cease has been a model of inconsistency of late, with a 3.57 ERA that masks his recent struggles. In his last three starts, Cease's ERA has swelled to 4.96-the end result of poor starts where Cease fails to keep his opponents off the board early. He allowed four runs in just over four innings to a scuffling Cardinals lineup and three runs in six innings against the Mets; he was hit hard early in both those games. Cease's inefficiency is further illustrated by his P/IP, which ballooned to 22.2 against the Cardinals-a sign that he often labors through innings and allows early scoring chances to opponents. Indeed, Cease has historically struggled against Tampa Bay-a fact well documented by personal outings where he allowed six earned runs in four innings of work and three to four runs in other short starts. In these games, he has high P/IPs, ranging from 16.1 to 25.2, that show how much trouble he is in wrangling the Rays lineup. Additionally, Cease has created apparent control problems, with the five walks he issued against the Diamondbacks remaining part of his inflated ERA. Pretty easily, in fact, such control-lapse fits can be converted into early runs for Tampa Bay, especially with Cease mixed on the road. The games lined up against teams such as the Marlins and Pirates further give them pointers of vulnerability in early scoring away from home. On the other side, Ryan Pepiot has been hot lately, with a 2.08 ERA over his last three starts. Pepiot has pitched efficiently, keeping his P/IP low: 13.5 vs. Cleveland and 15.0 vs. both the Diamondbacks and Athletics to stay in and out and limit chances of scoring. His recent performances-against lineups that haveTRY become formidable, like the Yankees and Mariners-in which he allowed two earned runs in 5.2 innings against each, further attest to his ability to suppress early offense. Pepiot's control has been outstanding with minimal walks and home runs allowed, such as just one walk in six innings against the Athletics. This is imperative in not allowing big innings early and increases the Rays' chances greatly to take an early lead.