Knicks vs. Pacers Odds & Betting Predictions - May 10, 2024

Ryanpropz NBA Straight

@ChicagoFlow

Projection gives a boost to the under and a +ev bet with devig odds of -149 giving value to the under

Pacers home splooge fest

Projected boost to the over and +ev bet with devig odds of -143 giving value to this number

Josh Hart has been a true iron man for the New York Knicks. He’s played every minute of these games for New York and has been instrumental to their success. Without OG Anunoby in Game 3, even more of the burden will fall on Hart, and while he cannot play more minutes than 48 he can handle a greater usage. In the two games this series, he’s recorded 7 and 8 assists against the Pacers and in his last six games without OG (and Randle), he’s recorded 8, 7, 6, 8, 10, 10. In the 27 games he’s played without OG since he joined the Knicks, he’s averaged 6.2 assists and has recorded 5 triple doubles. I’ll back Hart to exceeded 5.5 assists and to record a triple double (+1100).

Over in his last 6 games w/o OG Anunoby in the lineup. Hart assists over his last 6 games w/o OG: 10/10/8/6/7/8

#Tailing @PropBomb

Trending downwards this series as compared to the previous one. Yes, he’s been noticeably aggressive, but his floor is not what it’s used to been, seeing a playoff-low 27 minutes in Game 2. He put together 19 PRA shooting 78% FG from the field and converting on 4/4 of his assist chances and he’s being tasked on Brunson, removing plenty of rebounding chances. The problem with his role is directly linked to his replacement TJ McConnell. Vs. the Knicks, the Pacers have been terrific when he’s on the court (45 minutes) against the Knicks with a +21.9 NetRtg as compared to -31.7 NetRtg when he’s off (51 minutes). If they want to win Game 3, it must come with elevating his minutes over Nehmbhard. Assuming this to be the case. I have Nehmbhard projected for 24-30 minutes and with his U1.5 3PM sitting at -200, and not having another game where he shoots >70%, he averages 13.1 PRA, going under this line in 8 of the 10 games (80% rate). It won’t be long till this line is adjusted to 15.5. I’m firing before it does. #PlayerProps

#Tailing @PropBetGuy

With @PropBetGuy here

Yup @PropBetGuy

It’s a two P+A bump from last game, but now knowing his mins are more secure at 22+, I’m comfortable playing this line. This season, when he’s played between 20-26 mins, he’s 20/28 on this line (including 3/3 in the playoffs). He should hit this with 22 mins again, but I’d really be shocked if he doesn’t see more minutes in a close game in game 3. During the regular season, Carlisle has not been afraid to ride the hot hand, and when the Pacers coaches go back and watch the tape (instead of counting missed calls), they’ll realize McConnell has been unguardable, and is +19, despite the Pacers being -13. Knicks are banged up - I still think this game stays close, but even if the Pacers pull away, McConnell would likely still see more mins (to save Hali, who is also banged up).