Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Odds & Betting Predictions - January 7, 2025

+EV

🥊 The Mavericks will be without both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving today and one player that should be fired up to rejoin the rotation is Naji Marshall who missed some time due to suspension. Marshall can play meaningful minutes for this Mavericks team and should see run as both a self-creator and a hustle guy for this team. He has not played many games without both Luka and Kyrie but in one game this year he played 24 minutes and recorded 15 PRA. He could have scored more but was just 4/12 from the field. Marshall scores 10 more points per 100 possessions without Kyrie and 8.7 more per 100 without Luka. I think of the RA as a Usage/Minutes based stat and I can see him easily playing 20+ minutes. When he’s played 20+ minutes he has cleared his PRA line of 15.5 in 12/18 games this season and 9 of his last 10. Jim Turvey was on this on Buckets with me and I love the angle too.

MGM

8.11% ev

JJJ is averaging 30.4 PRA this season but enters this game in a new situation as all of Morant, Bane (Doubtful), Smart, Aldama, Kennard, GG and Vince Williams Jr. are out. He’s going to have all the usage he wants so I get why this is at 39.5, but based on the RotoGrinders CourtIQ data I think this number is just a little high. He’s surpassed 39.5 PRA in just 2 of his Last 10 games. No Luka and Kyrie on the other side likely keeps this game from blowing out. Still, Mavs will have all their big men healthy to at least defense against JJJ. This is an uncomfortable bet given how short-handed Memphis is but they still have enough for a 9-10 man rotation and I’m just trusting the CourtIQ data here.