Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - December 11, 2024

Have to buy back a little with Washington out, he was a huge part of the cap.

Over since Nam - backing OKC’s defense

If you’re looking for slightly more value, you might also consider alternate rebound lines (e.g., 5+ rebounds) for a better return. I'm sprinkling 0.25U on 5+ rebounds at +155 on Bet365.

I. Hartenstein ⬆️ 26.5 PRA's (-115 @ Fliff) THE BOUNCE 📽️: 28.45 PRA Collab w/ @FFBets 🚒 Hartenstein has exceeded this line in 6 of his 8 games this season, consistently producing an average of 29 PRA. With Chet Holmgren sidelined, Hartenstein has seen nearly 30 minutes per game. This elevated role boosts his opportunities to contribute across all statistical categories. The matchup against Dallas further strengthens the case for the over. The Mavericks have struggled defensively against centers, allowing the 4th most points, 8th most assists, and 21st most rebounds to the position. Hartenstein’s skill set aligns perfectly with these weaknesses, as he’s averaging 20.9 rebound chances and 5.3 potential assists per game. His efficiency is another key factor, shooting 56.9% from the field, the highest among OKC starters, while taking 9.0 field goal attempts and 2.5 free throw attempts per game. This efficiency ensures he capitalizes on the scoring opportunities presented.

I think this line is too low. Hartenstein is averaging 12.8 rebounds per game this season and has exceeded this in 6/8 games. He has a bad history against Dallas but that's because he has only played one game with more than 16 minutes - in that spot he secured 15 in 32 minutes on January 11, 2024. Hartenstein is a rebounding monster and I expect him to be able to cash in on the glass for us in the NBA Cup

Sandy

The Mavericks take on the Thunder in the NBA Cup Quarterfinals and I am targeting Klay Thompson to lock in from deep. Klay plays better with Luka Doncic in the fold and is averaging 3.1 3s on 8 3PA per game with Luka. He has 3+ in 10/17 games as well. When the Mavericks played the Thunder back in November, Klay got plenty of strong looks but was just 1/8 from beyond the arc. However, the consistent volume was notable. Oklahoma City allows the third highest distribution of 3 point shots, per Dunks and Threes and although they defend them well, it is more about the looks for me here since this was systemic to the last two seasons for OKC. When Klay has played OKC he has averaged 4.3 3s per game over the last three seasons and has cleared this mark in 7/9 games. Some of those numbers are obviously with the Warriors; however, it demonstrates his comfortability in this specific matchup. I’ll grab Klay to drain 3 3s in today’s contest.

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1.79% ev

+EV

Vegas is begging people to add Kyrie 20+ to their parlays. Don’t do it, OKC’s guard defense will make the Mavericks play through anybody other than Kyrie. In fact it would make most sense for them to capitalize on a non-Chet Thunder team by pounding it inside. I think Kyrie has a better chance at 20 assists than 20 points tomorrow😂