Nets vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - December 24, 2024

5.96% ev

4.66% ev

Ben Simmons has been on a brief scoring upswing, surpassing the 8.5-point mark in each of his last three games. However, this matchup against the Miami Heat sets up as a prime regression spot for Simmons, making the under a strong play. 1. Season-Long Trends Favor the Under Simmons has gone under 8.5 points in 77% of his games this season. Even in games where he sees significant minutes (24+), he remains under this mark 64% of the time, averaging just 6.0 points in those contests. His role is not centered on scoring, as he focuses more on facilitating, rebounding, and defense. 2. Low Volume Shooter Simmons is averaging only 5.8 field goal attempts per game, with nearly all of his shots coming from the restricted area or paint. While his efficiency is high due to his shot selection, the volume remains too low to consistently hit higher scoring marks. 3. Miami's Defensive Matchup Miami is an elite defensive team that limits scoring in Simmons' key areas: Points Allowed: Miami is allowing the 7th fewest points per game this season. Restricted Area Defense: The Heat allow the 4th fewest field goals in the restricted area. Paint Defense: Miami also ranks 3rd in fewest field goals allowed in the paint. Given Simmons’ reliance on scoring in these zones, the Heat’s disciplined interior defense creates a tough scoring environment.

Tailing @JoeDellera

The Nets face off against the Heat on Monday night and I’m looking to fade Ben Simmons’ recent hot streak. Simmons has scored 10, 12, and 15 points in his last 3 games as his minutes saw a slight uptick without Dennis Schroder. While he scored well here, I think it’s a bit inflated due to the more recent matchups. Simmons actually scored more points per 100 possessions with Schroder than without him this season. This matchup is just a bad one for Simmons. Miami runs zone at one of the highest rates in the league and Simmons is not exactly a zone buster with his shot profile. Simmons has not recorded a scoring opportunity this season when facing off against a zone, per Synergy. Aside from this recent hot streak, Simmons is over this line in just 2 of 19 games and against Miami, I think he goes under.