Raptors vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - December 13, 2024

Last game was the Ja’Kobe Walter breakout game / Scottie injury game. Walter will take a back seat to Ochoa tonight, and Ochoa scored 8+ in all the games Scottie sat earlier this season for possibly the best stretch of his career… there’s a reason his point prop jumped up 2+ points after going under three times in a row and it’s not just cuz of the injury ITS CUZ THE BOOKS KNOW HE’S GOING OVER

RJ Barrett is averaging 5.8 assists per game in 22 games this season, but in the wake of Scottie Barnes’ injury, he should be back to his more on-ball dominant role in where he averaged 7.6 assists per game during in the nine game sample size without him and Immanual Quickley on the court. Drilling into this nine game sample size, Barrett saw his potential assists jump from 10.2 to 11.44, and most notably had game of at least 12-13 potentials in 67% of the same size. Using Court-IQ, Barrett averages 7.99 AST Per-36 min with Gradey Dick ON the court and IQ + Scottie out. Having his, Ochai, Ja’Kobe’s, and Olynyk’s presence will be a boost for conversions. As for the upcoming matchup, Barrett faces a Heat squad he’s recorded 5 & 7 assists vs. but that was with Scottie Barnes present (he collected 9 and 10 assists these game). Being the likely #1 option, Miami will likely crash on drives using Haywood as the primary defender, where spot-up shooting is needed. And another edge that could work in our favor is the emergence of Ja’Kobe Walter, coming off a season-high 19 point game vs. NYK. Being a player that works off the ball means the Raptors could experiment with him next to RJ Barrett in the starting lineup, which would then mean Davion Mitchell likely comes off the bench and therefore boost RJ’s assist % even further. #PlayerProps

Adebayo is leading the Heat in passes and assists this season. His 5.2 assists per game is the 2nd-best mark of his career. He's averaging 65.5 touches per game, behind only Tyler Herro. This unselfish role has led to declines on the scoring side. Adebayo is averaging 16 points per game, his fewest since 2019-20. His usage rate is the lowest since that same season. Adebayo's 43.9% field goal percentage sticks out as an avenue for positive regression. He's been above 51% in every season of his career. The key is the shot selection. Adebayo has taken 20.7% of his shots from 3-point range this season. That might not seem like much, but it's 5X his previous career high (4.1%). Adebayo is shooting just 33.3% from beyond the arc. The expanded range has limited him to 9.6 shots per game from the paint this season. Adebayo averaged 11.6 field goal attempts in the paint over the past 3 seasons. Toronto is 16th in defensive rating and points allowed over the past 10 games. Adebayo faced them twice recently and delivered the type of well-rounded performance we should expect given his role. He posted a triple-double against them on November 29th, then turned around and grabbed 20 rebounds with 7 assists against them on December 1st. He had 14 and 13 points in those 2 games, respectively.

D. Mitchell ⬇️ 6.5 Assists (-115 @ BetRivers) Davion Mitchell's assist line at 6.5 feels inflated given his recent performance and the game context. Over his last 10 games, Mitchell has stayed under this mark in 9, averaging just 3.8 assists per game. While Scottie Barnes' absence may lead to an uptick in minutes and playmaking opportunities, it’s unlikely to push him past this high number. The Miami Heat present an interesting matchup. While they allow the 9th most assists per game to opposing point guards, the game itself is a pace-down spot. Miami ranks 28th in pace, and this slower tempo should limit possessions and assist opportunities for Mitchell. Furthermore, the significant spread introduces the risk of a blowout, potentially capping his minutes late in the game. Given the combination of Mitchell’s recent trends, Miami’s style of play, and potential blowout concerns, the under on 6.5 assists looks like strong value.

🦖 The Raptors take on the Heat tonight and will be without Scottie Barnes for the foreseeable future once again. While Barrett and Dick are the obvious options for greater Usage, I'm looking at Agbaji. Agbaji is averaging 13.3 points per game without Barnes and with RJ this season with Double Digit points in 8/11 games. This spot against Miami is interesting too - Miami allows a high frequency of 3s, especially from the corner which is a spot Agbaji thrives from while also getting to the rim. The Rim and the Corner are two of the weakest spots for this Miami defense. Considering the defense likely keys in on RJ and Dick this is a good spot for Agbaji to excel.

2.31% ev

Sandy

Mgm

I’m not a prop expert. Be cautious